Jean-Luc Melanson’s “People’s Union” shows marginally first in votes but second in seats, the rolling Ifop-Fiducial poll published today by the French television station LCI.
In particular, according to the results of the poll, in the first round of the French parliamentary elections that will take place next Sunday, the coalition of the Left parties appears to gather 26% of the votes, compared to 25% that appears to be the coalition of the parties that under the name “Together” support President Emanuel Macron.
In the second round, however, which will take place next Sunday, the Popular Union appears to win a maximum of 230 seats, while the parties close to Macron appear to receive at least 250 and a maximum of 290 seats. For a party to have an absolute majority in the French National Assembly it must have at least 289 seats.
As for the other parties, the far right Marin Le Pen is in third place with 21%, but in the second round it is estimated that it will win at least 20 and at most 45 seats, while the Republican center-right party reaching 11% in the first round is expected to win. in the second at least 35 and at most 55 seats.
It is noted that from the first round only the candidates who receive more than 50% of the votes are elected, while in the second round the first and the second of the first round pass, and possibly the third if it has received more than 12.5% ​​of the votes. votes of registered voters.
In France there are 577 single-member constituencies, while the abstention is estimated to be over 50%.
According to the results of this poll, the parties of the presidential majority will hardly have autonomy and the parliamentary majority, and in order to obtain it, they may ask for the support of the Republican Party, ie the party that previously won the elections under Chirac and continued under Sarkozy. On the other hand, if the poll is verified, the People’s Union will not be able to have a majority of MPs and Melanson will not be able to “impose” Macron on his position as prime minister.
SOURCE: ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ
Source: Capital
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