France: Melanson’s small lead in parliamentary elections gives new poll

The coalition of left-wing parties under Jean-Luc Melanson appears to be ahead by 28% in the first round of the French parliamentary elections, compared to 27% of the parties in the presidential majority under Emanuel Macron, according to a poll that saw the light of day. . The third place is occupied by the extreme right under Marin Lepen with 22%, the fourth by the center-right Republicans with 11% and the fifth place by the far right party under Eric Zemour with 6.5%.

However, the percentages of the first round in the French parliamentary elections, due to the country’s majority electoral system, do not prejudge the final distribution of seats in the French National Assembly. Everything is judged in the second round, where in each of the 577 constituencies the first two parties pass in votes, but also those that exceed in absolute number 12.5% ​​of the registered voters. The abstention in the French parliamentary elections is of the order of 50%. This electoral system gave 356 of the 577 seats in the parties under the Macron presidential majority in 2017, while in the first round their percentages were 32%. According to Ifop, which conducted this week’s rolling poll, the statistical error ceiling is around 3%. Based on the results of the poll, it seems to confirm the estimates that in most constituencies, in all probability, there will be no candidates in the second round of June 19 supported by the parties of the deep-rooted in France traditional right. The conduct of the second round, which is the decisive factor for the distribution of seats in the new French National Assembly, will largely depend on the behavior of these voters.

Source: AMPE