The fact that Melanson’s voters appear to be leaning more in favor of Macron and less in favor of Le Pen in the second round, while the projected “average turnout” is expected to reach 73%, a level very close to that of the first round (73.7% ), pollsters attribute Macron’s increasingly probable dominance in the French presidential election. It is recalled, however, that in 2017, Macron won with 66.1% of the vote against 33.9%.
According to a BVA poll, nine days before the second round, the majority of left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Melanson’s voters are considering either abstaining (30%) or voting white (22%). However, those who will go to the polls are much more likely to vote for Emanuel Macron (30%) than for Marin Le Pen (18%).
Macron also leads by a wide margin between the ages of 70 and over (70% vs. 30% for Lepen), but his difference from the far-right candidate is on the margins of statistical error between the ages of 35 and 49 (49% for the outgoing president versus 51% for Lepen).
The newspaper Le Figaro notes, however, that if Macron wants to emerge victorious from the presidential race, in the period that separates him from the ballot box on April 24, he will have to erase the image of the president of the rich and replace it with the image of a president careful and protective located close to the ordinary citizen. According to opinion polls, the outgoing president has a significant deficit against Le Pen. An Ifop poll found that 35% of French people thought Macron was close to their concerns, compared with 60% for Le Pen.
The same newspaper draws conclusions, based on the results of the first round of the presidential elections, for the parliamentary elections in June. As reported, Macron, in the first round, came first in 184 of the 343 constituencies that prevailed in the previous parliamentary elections.
In the precincts where the center-right Republicans had dominated in the previous parliamentary elections, Le Pen, in the first round of the presidential elections, was in the first place at 54, against 39 for Macron and 10 for Melanson. In total, Macron came first in 256 districts, Le Pen in 206 and Melanson in 104 districts.