France: Unprecedented rise of extremist parties

Macron and Lepen advance to the second round, as expected. The meager percentages of Socialists and the Right are a surprise, but also the thematic strengthening of extremist parties, estimates Olympia Tsipira from Paris.

It was a night of agony in France. The final results of the first round were clarified around two in the morning, due to the continuous rise of Melanson who had reached 22.2% at midnight, with a Marin Lepen who was moving at 23%. Melanson’s “Rebels” had the heartbeat of hope for the big upset: for Melanson to advance to the second round, beating Le Pen. Hopes were dashed with the announcement of the final results: Emanuel Macron 27.6%, Marin Lepen 23.4%, Melanson 51.95%. It is clear now, the duel for the second round will take place between Macron-Lepen.

It is a duel avoided by the French people. From the bottom of their hearts, the French wanted and want, for the important election of the president, which in France is almost a monarchy, to vote for the program they believe in and for the person they choose. In practice, however, at least three times the French voted in the second round with the sole aim of putting a stop to the far right. Emanuel Macron had promised during his election in 2017 that he would “annihilate” the far right from the country. A promise that was not kept and the French do not forget.

Crash for Socialists and Republicans

With a first observation on how the French voted yesterday we will see that the majority of 55 votes, 81% are gathered by the extreme parties from the right and the left of the electoral palette together: Lepen 23.4%, Zemour 7.05%, Diponenian 2.07%, Melanson 21.95%, Poutou 0.77%, Bread 0.57%. This rise of the extremist parties is unprecedented in France’s election history. The electoral collapse of the traditional big parties that have ruled the country is also unprecedented. The Socialists and the Right (Republicans) together hold a humiliating 6.53%: If Indalgo 1.74%, Valerie Pecres 4.79%. The tragic consequence for these two parties is that they will not even be able to be compensated by the French public. for the expenses of the campaign, since his candidates did not reach the necessary minimum of 5%.

For Macron, the key is Melanson

Difficult times for Macron, the second round does not seem to be a walk, although the forecasts place him between 51-54% (IFOP – IPSOS) against 49-46% for Lepen. The campaign he did not do for the first round will have to be done now to convince. To give birth to the desire to vote for a program they accept and not out of fear of a Le Pen.

It is noteworthy that in the first round Macron seems to have been saved by the right-wing Valerie Pekres, who absorbed thousands of voters due to a relatively unsuccessful campaign and the prevailing idea of ​​a “useful vote”. We note that after her election for the candidacy (December 2021) Pekres had forecasts for a while at 17%, to reach today at 4.79%. The paradox for Macron is that if in the first he was “saved” by Pekres, in the second round, his hope is to be saved by Melanson’s voters. The leader of the “Disobedient” did not signal Macron to vote, but stressed three times “not a single vote in Lepen”. It remains for Macron to work to persuade with a redesigned program, otherwise it will be difficult to govern … the French know how to take to the streets.

Olympia Tsipira, Paris

Source: Deutsche Welle