France’s parliamentary elections: Macron loses absolute majority – ‘Political earthquake’ since Le Pen rise

LAST UPDATE: 22.54

The faction close to President Emanuel Macron came in first in today’s second round of parliamentary elections in France, but all estimates put it far from the 289 seats out of the 577 required for an absolute majority.

According to the latest estimates of the television station BFM, the faction adjacent to Macron will receive from 210 to 230 seats, while compared to previous estimates, the number of seats of the left-wing alliance of Jean-Luc Melanson that will move between at 170 and 190 seats. Lepen’s party appears to be winning 80 to 95 seats, while Republicans will be between 58 and 65 seats. Also 20 to 25 deputies are included in the independents.

Unsurprisingly, this fourth election in two months was marked by an abstention that is estimated to be 53.5-54%, up one point from the first round. However, it will not break the record of the second round of the 2017 elections which was 57.36%.

For Le Pen, the success is undeniable: it multiplies the number of its deputies and far exceeds the limit of 15 deputies to form a parliamentary group, for the second time in the history of its party, after 1986. Political analysts speak of a political earthquake but also for the great difficulties that Macron will have from now on.

A parliament without a majority will create a period of political uncertainty that will require a degree of power-sharing between parties that France has not experienced in decades, otherwise it will lead to political paralysis and even repeat elections.

If the result is confirmed, Macron’s ability to continue further reform of the eurozone’s second-largest economy will depend on his ability to mobilize members outside his alliance.

Macron, 44, became the first French president in two decades to win a second term in April, but he heads a deeply frustrated and divided country, where support for populist parties on the right and left has risen sharply.

He had called for a strong mandate during a campaign against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, which hit food and energy supplies and sparked inflation, burdening household budgets.

“Nothing could be worse than adding French disorder to global disorder,” Macron said ahead of the second round of parliamentary elections.

Melanson’s Nupes campaign campaigned for a freeze on commodity prices, lowering the retirement age and banning dividend-paying companies from laying off workers. Melanson also called for disobedience to the European Union.

Macron’s political allies have described Melanson as a “vicious troublemaker” who will destroy France.

If Macron and his allies lose an absolute majority by a wide margin, as initial predictions show, they may either seek an alliance with the conservative Les Republicains or run a minority government that will have to negotiate laws with other parties on a case-by-case basis.