Francesco Billari, statistical and rector of the Bocconi University: “Demographic growth depends on our choices on immigration, because the birth rate will not change quickly, immigration instead can change it in closer times”

«I have a son alone. Do I have to feel guilty? Isn’t it my personal choice if having no other children? What if a person do not have a person? Do I have to look at welfare and pensions as a single citizen? ». There are so many and touched the questions that can be done to Francesco Billaristatistical and rector of the Bocconi University, which immediately become personal because demography is closer than we imagine: the stories of the Italians intertwine with the statistics that report an unprecedented demographic crisis. TO The Big Interviewthe new live event of Wired Italy Which brings the extraordinary minds of our time to stage, he is together hosts and guest. After the debut in San Francisco, the appointment arrives for the first time in Milan, on June 26 at the Bocconi University and the demography is a means and perspective to tell the future scenarios of Italy in the political, economic and social sphere and the possible reforms on education, immigration and housing policies.

The question remains: the statistics tell a demographic crisis, but is it not a personal choice to have children?

“Part of the declaration of the fundamental rights of the person is to recognize the right to each individual, not even to the couple, but to the individual of having the desired number of children and also leaves freedom on when to have them. The individual choice should never be questioned, but just as the right of each of us is to choose not to have children or to have one, if someone wants to have two or more of two, we must ask ourselves if this right must also be facilitated from the social point of view and individuals. These choices have a symmetrical and similar value, what we tend to tend to the data is that if we go to ask for something on generic desires, in reality the Italians and the Italians are not different from French, tendentially many on average want a number of children who are not far from two. So yes, on an individual level it is right that it is a right, in the same way if I wanted two children and I said I don’t have the money or my job has too long hours, we should ask us if the company can help. “

Italy is simply late, it is not the only one to have had the problem. «Other countries have placed the question. The Swedish welfare considered advanced was born between the two world wars, also from concerns about the low birth rate. The basic idea is to ensure that everyone can be able to fulfill their desires. Often the mistake of leaning out of selfishness to young Italians has been made. It is not that young Italians are more selfish than the Swedes or the French. Egoism then tends to acquire who is responsible for welfare policies, saying: “There is a cultural problem, it is a problem of selfishness, I can’t do anything about it”.

France is another positive example. In 1945, after the war, General De Gaulle commissioned the National Institute of Demographic Studies in Paris, the largest in the world still today. «They left in 45, they are 80 years ago. They studied the theme, they designed a system of policies designed in decades. It has not been questioned because it is a system based on research, evidence, data, tends to be not right and not leftist. It is a bit like the highway or the train: an infrastructure without political color ».

A country for old people

Italy is already an old country today, it is a country with a higher share of elderly. «This is the outcome of the combination of a factor that is absolutely positive, Italy is among the world leaders in longevity. The most recent data we have on 2024 give a record level of the average life of life, 83 years old. In a year we improved by 5 months, so it is as if from 2023 to 2024 we were aged only by 7 and not 12 months. Life expectancy has grown, it is impossible to define it as a negative figure. However, the combination of this with the drop in births led to a high altitude of elderly, so it is the combination that puts our society in difficulty ».

Create welfare infrastructures

Are we in time? The professor’s answer is yes, but we have to do it now. «By studying and investing. Germany had a problem like Italy, had the advantage of having a nice public budget without the debt, which is also part of the problem, and they started studying. They implemented some policies by learning above all from the Swedes, in reality they had a piece of the tax system that was already similar to France with the split income, which is not the family quotient but almost. When Angela Merkel was to the government, with the Minister of the Ursula von der Leyen family, they went to universal subsidized, but universal nursery school means 100%, when we are 30%discuss in Italy. They told the Municipalities that all the children above a year were entitled to the nursery school, if they did not provide the service they had to reimburse transport to the first municipality where there was availability of asylum and could have penalties. They have quickly arrived to have placed for 100% of children, obviously the difference compared to Germany is the commitment of public money that Berlin was able to make ». In Italy similar policies are needed and not the alibi that children are better with their parents. «The scientific literature on the topic said it is not so, nursery schools have universal advantages. This policy has brought the level of number of children for women, to our highest province, the autonomous province of Bolzano throughout Germany ».

Women, children and work

«The research says that in the past there were more women on the labor market were made less children, this until the seventies. If we look at Europe and the OECD countries, today the report is inverse, where there is more female presence on the labor market are made on average more children ». This figure says it is better to have two incomes rather than one for children, but it is worth if there is a welfare system. The first infrastructure we have to build are the nursery schools, but are there other highways we have to do? «We need the whole transport system, only one thing is not enough, the nursery schools, they are missing for dads and mothers. We need attention for those with very low incomes, therefore the single check. On these themes I think there is a fairly wide agreement: on the increase in parental leave, on a favorable taxation for those who perhaps have dependent children “.

Children and school

Statistics also say that our group with the highest risk of poverty is that of large families. How to help them? Simple measures on which there is discussion of years. «The duration of the school, the stretching of the times, the shortening of the holidays, the sport perhaps free or in any case calmly, the free meals. In Finland they do not even give homework because these increase the inequalities between families, then if it is a long school you don’t have any time to do them, maybe you do the sport at school. These are politicians who are obviously also favorable to children, help the children’s family, the obesity among Italian children is increasing, if we make them go to eat at school at least once in controlled things can improve ».

Immigration

Today we are in a country where the latest data say 5 million and 4 of resident foreigners, 9.2% of the population. About 2 million residents who are naturalized were foreigners. If we add them, there are 7.4 million Italian residents who are foreigners, some of these born in Italy. «Without these 7 and a half million people, the Italian population would be more or less at the level we had in the mid -sixties, when we were still in full boom. Immigration has already happened, because it was also demographically natural. The births continued to drop, there was a question of work of a certain type, demand for care, domestic help, carers. This has allowed the growth of our country: the births that have at least one foreign parent are more than 20%. Without these we would not even have the few born we have. From here to 2050 our demographic growth depends on our choices on immigration, because the birth rate will not change quickly, immigration instead can change it in closer times. Although we do not have Angela Merkel’s Germans, we must implement policies, even if not necessarily expensive such as access to the citizens of the children of immigrants born in Italy, the improvement of the school with lengthening time and the support of private individuals, for example the corporate kindergartens open to the exterior. Companies cannot be back back because immigration is not just searching for labor, they are not only arms, but people ».

The Big Interview, created in collaboration with Bocconi Universities, is a free event open to everyone, designed for a new generation of citizens, entrepreneurs, decision makers, students and digital explorers: those who want to understand, ask questions, anticipate change.

A format in line with the brand’s mission, led by Luca Zorloni, to make knowledge a shared asset, generate debate and inspire vision, and which will live up all the channels of Wired Italy: from the site to social media, up to the number of the magazine on newsstands in June, with dedicated insights and exclusive content.

Cionet Italia will participate as networking partners, with the aim of promoting the creation of an ecosystem open to comparison and innovation among the main innovation actors.

To consult the update program and register: https://eventi.wired.it/big- Interview/home/