French elections: Macron favorite, Lepen for the surprise

By Costas Raptis

He may not be a favorite of the French anymore, but he always remains the favorite of the polls – which give him a lead of about ten percentage points. Emanuel Macron enters the battle for the second round of the French presidential election on Sunday with the “air” provided by his unused electoral reserves (especially in terms of center-right voters), with the advantage that objectively has “continuity” and “confidence” in the midst of a pan-European upheaval and with the superiority of his image over Marin Le Pen, as recorded in Wednesday’s debate between the two gladiators.

But absolute certainties do not exist this time. Nor is the ballot box going to show a difference in votes as spectacular as that of 2017, when the reflexes of the “Republican front” against the “extreme right-wing threat” were still working. After all, the current president himself has warned that Brexit was a “surprise”, while the spread of the slogan “Neither Lepen, nor Macron” among young people and voters of the Left demonstrates the change of mind.

Therefore, the scenario of the demolition of the Elysee Palace by Lepen no longer seems so exotic. Hence, all stakeholders in Europe are engaged in experiments thinking about what is going to happen “if any”.

Speaking with a number of European officials, lawyers, politicians from other Member States, in particular Germany, as well as with Le Pen’s associates, Politico gathered their assessments and speculations about the impact of a possible electoral overthrow on the second largest economy (and sole nuclear power) of the EU

Most agree with the German Green, the head of the Bundestag’s European Affairs Committee, Anton Hofreiter, who called Lepen’s victory “fatal” for Europe, as it would “massively endanger the security of all Europeans and create a huge economic problem.” cooperation on issues such as technology development, climate protection and the common foreign policy “.

Although it has largely rounded out its rhetoric in trying to “demonize” its faction, and although it has focused its campaign on living standards, Lepen continues to have two obsessions: “Islamic fundamentalism” and “Brussels bureaucracy”. He would have been deprived of any political reason for existence if he had rejected them after coming to power.

The French “exit” from the euro or the EU. have indeed been repulsed – for the sake of the EU reform ambition “from the inside”, as other players have been seeking for several years now, such as the Visegrad Group countries, but which do not have the weight of France.

What does “from within” mean? In her election program, Lepen has two specific (not at first sight resounding, but critical) references. The first has to do with the promise of mass customs recruitment, invoking the fight against smuggling and corruption. The second concerns the introduction, after a constitutional revision, of “national preference” in recruitment and the granting of social benefits. But such a thing would be nothing more than a bomb on the foundations of the common market and the free movement of goods, persons and services.

If Le Pen’s dispositions are more “warlike”, we can, without much imagination, see threats to reduce France’s contribution to the Community budget or to enshrine it in a referendum on the primacy of national law over Community law, while ignoring European Court rulings.

But time is not on the side of the leader of the French far right. On the one hand, because no one can know before the French parliamentary elections in two rounds on June 12 and 19 which parliamentary majority the next (or next) president will be based on and whether the voters will impose on this fragmented and fluid party landscape, an awkward “coexistence” of different political forces at the top of power.

It is no coincidence that more and more players are now turning their attention to this (equally crucial) “third round” of elections, starting with Jean-Luc Melanson, who for just one and a half percentage points was excluded from tomorrow’s match and who called for cooperation with other forces of the Left, with the explicit ambition to become Prime Minister of France.

Respectively, Marion Marshall Lepen, an alien niece of the leader of the National Alarm, proposed a partnership in the parliamentary elections of the entire far right, from the unfortunate presidential candidate Eric Zemour, who supported her to the next candidate. of the Prime Minister. The fact that Marin Le Pen’s party’s party’s blatantly rejects any proposal from Zemour’s camp does not rule out a success in the “third round”, reminding us that the challenge of a “normalized” far-right rise to power does not disappear with its countdown. next Sunday.

But Le Pen’s deepest problem is that any dominance will face the onslaught of the markets from the outset, leaving no room for her to unfold her plans. And just for the fact that it is what it is, the French bond spread and the euro-dollar exchange rate are going to experience shocks, before even the first controversial announcements come from the Palais des Elysées.

Therefore, the early “domestication” of Lepen would be the most likely scenario. But in this case, “President Marin” would be even more pressured to offer her audience “identical” gestures such as the ban on the Islamic headscarf. The cohesion of French society would thus be further tested.

In the crosshairs and NATO

In fact, the “front” that Le Pen would prefer to open in the current situation concerns not the EU. but NATO. Not coincidentally, she included in her campaign announcements the withdrawal of France from the unified allied military administration. The fact that this was the case from 1966 to 2009 weakens the taboo and refers to days of glorious glory.

Le Pen argues that it is not appropriate for her country to be an “American protectorate”, nor for its armed forces to be under NATO or a future European joint administration. In fact, he adds that after the end of the war in Ukraine, a new strategic EU-Russia relationship is envisioned. The fact that Macron reminded the debate in the past about the financing of her party by Russian banks in the past remains to be seen how it will be registered in the minds of voters.