Russian President Vladimir Putin will face political costs inside his own country if tensions on the border with Ukraine lead to Russian losses, according to an analyst, according to CNBC.
“He is not willing to have Russian forces occupy large parts of Ukraine that are hostile to these forces because he does not want to see Russian casualties,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center for Military and Civil Power at the Defense Foundation. of the Republics.
But even if there is no major battle between the two sides, the Kremlin will have “a range of options” against Ukraine, Bowman told CNBC.
Russia has deployed more than 100,000 troops along its border with Ukraine, raising the alarm that Moscow may be planning an attack. The Kremlin, for its part, denies the allegations, but the military rally has revived memories of the 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea.
Russia is a “much more formidable force,” but Ukraine’s armed forces have improved and are now “hardened in battle,” Bowman said.
He predicted that Russian forces would ultimately be successful if Moscow chose to invade, but that this would have “great costly losses.” This would have “a political impact on Putin inside his country,” he added.
A military conflict is likely to hit support for the Kremlin, according to Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow and chairman of the Russian Internal Policy and Political Institutions Program at Moscow’s Carnegie Center.
“The Russians are not willing to pay the price for a war,” Kolesnikov said on Twitter.
“If Russia enters a protracted war with Ukraine, it could threaten the broad popular base on which Putin has relied for more than 20 years,” he told Foreign Affairs magazine.
This is something the Russian leader wants to avoid, Bowman said, adding: “Putin understands these things. I think he wants to achieve this goal at the lowest political cost.”
Putin’s choices
Despite the thousands of troops stationed at the border, a major military operation “does not have to happen” between Russia and Ukraine, Bowman said.
Putin would have preferred to achieve his goal – a commitment that Ukraine would not join NATO – at the negotiating table, but that request has been rejected by the US and the West, Bowman said, adding that if Putin could not To achieve this, Russia’s manual includes assassinations, poisonings and coups.
The Kremlin has perfected the “gray zone war” of cyberattacks and propaganda, and there is “a range of options” that Putin can use, he added.
“Even if Russia attacks, it could choose” missile strikes “without entering Ukraine and occupying new territories,” he said.
“Moscow could also launch an amphibious attack or annex Ukraine’s Donbass region the way it took Crimea in 2014,” Bowman said.
Source: Capital
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