Fuel lag is not large yet, but it can accumulate, says expert

The fuel price lag is still not large, but it can be considered worrying due to the possibility of the adjustments to accumulate and come in the form of a new price increase, analyzed Virginia Parente, a professor at the USP Institute of Energy and Environment, in an interview with CNN this Sunday (15th).

After the decision of Minister André Mendonça, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), 27 different ICMS rates will no longer be admitted, which represents uniformity and a reduction in the value of fuel and less fluctuation in prices. Therefore, the command of Complementary Law 192/2022 takes effect again, with balanced and proportional taxation.

Complementary Law No. 192, of 2022, of March, implemented the so-called single-phase collection and the uniformity of the rate in the taxation of fuels by ICMS. It also provided for a transition period, until the end of the year, so that states could set a rate equivalent to the average of the last 60 months – which, in practice, would represent a drop in the current tax burden on fuel.

“The lag is not big, but it is worrying, because it can accumulate with the next one and come a new increase. Fuel is putting a lot of pressure on inflation, but Petrobras is a company — it’s difficult for one of the partners to force the others to do a favor”, said Virgínia Parente when evaluating the company’s pricing policies.

For Parente, the states “gave a hat” not to have their income reduced “for nothing”. “They unified the ICMS rate, but each one gave a discount according to their needs,” she said.

The specialist assesses the need for a negotiation between the Union and the states, as a “debt extension” so that governments can “give up this ICMS and contribute to the population, which is really suffering a lot with the price of fuel”, she said. .

Virginia Parente also assessed that the main impact on the predicted fuel price is “our internal situation improving from an economic point of view”, in view of the general elections.

“If Brazil becomes safer and more stable, even at election time, people who have resources and companies will not look for the dollar, and when the demand for the dollar increases, it soars. As oil is quoted in dollars on the world market, this will be felt here, ”he declared, also assessing the external situation of the war in Ukraine.

“It is mainly an external issue, compounded by our internal circumstances – volatility, instability of democracy. There is a demand for hard currencies. This pressure due to instability occurs, and ends up being transmitted. If the internal environment remains calm, at least the devaluation of the real against the dollar will not occur”.

*With information from Thais Arbex, from CNN