Fuel subsidy program may cost BRL 20 billion in three months

The subsidy program, which is evaluated by the federal government in an attempt to avoid an increase in fuel prices, would be transitory, lasting three months, and would have a cost of around R$20 billion.

The calculations are made by the political and economic teams, which will meet again this Wednesday (9) to decide what measures to adopt in the face of the rise in the barrel of oil in the face of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

According to a diagnosis made to CNN Brasil by government advisors, the effort is aimed at preventing a liter of gasoline from reaching R$10 in the country, a prognosis made in view of the lag in the current price.

At the meeting held on Tuesday (8), held at Palácio do Planalto, the federal government decided to wait for the vote on the bill that deals with the change in the calculation of the Tax Under Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) to decide whether to implement a subsidy policy.

According to ministers and advisors who participated in the meeting, with whom CNN Brasil spoke, the strategy at the moment is to focus on the complementary bill (PLP) 11, which deals with changing the tax calculation, and is on the agenda of the Federal Senate. for this Wednesday (9).

The assessment is that instituting a subsidy policy at this time may discourage government parliamentarians from voting in favor of the proposal, which has had support even among opposition congressmen.

The proposal provides for a fixed rate of ICMS. According to government sources, the idea is to make it possible to pass the bill before any transfer to the consumer of the increase in the price of a barrel of oil, which is outdated in relation to both diesel and gasoline.

The ministers of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, of Mines and Energy, Bento Albuquerque, and of the Civil House, Ciro Nogueira, were at the meeting and evaluated the possibility of implementing a subsidy policy. They showed resistance, however, about the project to create a stabilizing fund.

The initiative is also being discussed in the National Congress, but the assessment by the federal government is that the subsidy policy could replace the stabilizing fund, since the source of funds for both, both dividends and royalties, would be the same.