bitcoin cannot fix above the psychological mark of $20,000. At the time of writing, the BTC rate was currently sinking below the next round level of $19,000. At the same time, Fundstrat technical analyst Mark Newton does not consider these levels to be the limit. He notes the high chances of a final wave of surrender before the market finally makes a bottom.
“Most short-term technical indicators indicate that the likelihood of a final washout wave is above average. Only after that the market will find the bottom,” he said.
How writes BloombergNewton believes that BTC may collapse in the region of $ 12,500 – $ 13,000. These levels, in his opinion, can become an excellent springboard for building up long positions by medium-term buyers.
Previous capitulations in the BTC market
The fall of bitcoin to such values will mean a drawdown of the rate by 82% from all-time highs. At the moment, the BTC correction from the peaks already exceeds 70%.
During the previous market cycle, the market made a high of $20,000 in December 2017, after which it collapsed to $3,200 in December of the following year. The size of the rollback from the highs was exactly 82%.
A cycle earlier, in the 2015 bear market, BTC also sank from its 2014 peaks by a very similar 84%.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin made a current low of $17,760 (June 19). After that, the coin recovered slightly, but the bears continue to confidently control the market. The situation is aggravated by the aggressive outcome of the miners.
Newton’s concerns are echoed by his colleague Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at Oanda. He confesses: “I fear that in the coming weeks the downpour of negative news that has been coming in over the last couple of months may continue,” while he has no confidence in the mood of the crypto community, given that they can not develop momentum for BTC above $20,000.
Not without accumulation
Meanwhile, on-chain analytics company Glassnode notesthat, despite the extremely difficult situation and bearish sentiment, there are still some accumulation trends in the market.
For example, bitcoin hodlers holding less than one coin (the so-called “shrimp”) are increasing their balance sheets at the most aggressive pace since March 2020. In addition, the “whales”, who own more than one thousand coins, are also buying coins directly from exchanges at a rate of 140,000 BTC per month.
At the moment, the whales own 8.69 million BTC (45.6% of the total supply), and the “shrimp” – 1.12 million coins.
Within the extremely challenging #Bitcoin market conditions of 2022, there are three entity cohorts with very interesting dynamics:
A thread exploring these entities 🧵1/4 pic.twitter.com/rxYcNxausS
— glassnode (@glassnode) June 29, 2022
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