Future heat waves could be more lethal than predicted, studies show

The planet is warming and, if nothing is done, life on Earth could become unsustainable. Research indicates that hot flashes they could become increasingly intense in the future and even more deadly, making the planet a hostile environment.

Recent research indicates that extreme weather eventslike heat waves, will be increasingly frequent and intense. They occur when the temperature is at least 5ºC above average for more than five days in a row .

That Increased temperature is closely related to air humidity: the drier it is, the hotter it is. In Brazil, until October 2024, every month there were heat waves.

Estimates from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicate that, between 2024 and 2028, global average temperatures can be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). It is likely that the symbolic mark of 1.5°C, from Paris Agreementexceed 80% in one of the next five years, marking a worrying acceleration in the pace of global warming.

The forecasts are worrying, since, with the increase in temperature, the human body loses its ability to cool itself — something essential for life.

In research published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, of the United States National Academy, in 2010, researchers Matthew Huber and Steven Sherwood described how wet bulb temperature (wet-bulb temperatureTW), which combines heat and moisture, is critical in determining the human body’s ability to dissipate heat.

When TW exceeds 35°C for prolonged periods, the human body cannot cool itself adequately, leading to hyperthermia. Under these conditions, body temperature rises rapidly, causing organ failure and death.

THE search highlights that, although there are already regions on the planet with very high temperatures, such as deserts, the low humidity in these places allows sweat to evaporate and keep the body cool.

The problem occurs in tropical and subtropical regions, where the combination of extreme heat and high humidity eliminates this cooling capacity. Currently, maximum observed TW values ​​rarely exceed 31°C.

However, one study indicates that a average global increase of 7°C would be enough for some regions of the planet to begin reaching the TW limit of 35°C, a scenario in which hot flashes would exceed the physiological limits of survival, posing risks even to healthy individuals.

The same study also estimates that the continuous burning of fossil fuels could lead to average global warming of up to 12°C in the coming centuries.

The scenario envisioned by scientists was described by the magazine New Scientist like the thermogeddon — a metaphor for “thermal Armageddon.” NNot only would the biological capacity for survival be more difficult given the predictions, but the socioeconomic impacts could also be devastating.

Working outdoors or in environments without air conditioning would become impossible, harming sectors such as agriculture, construction and transport. Furthermoreincreased use of air conditioning would increase energy costs, putting pressure on economies and electrical systems.

With an increase of 12°C, a large part of the Earth’s currently inhabited surface would become uninhabitable.

How to stop thermogeddon

Mitigating this scenario depends on urgent and coordinated actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

In an interview with Jornal da USP, Carlos Nobre, climatologist and researcher at the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), highlights the importance of Brazil being at the forefront of resolving climate issues.

For him, it is necessary to accelerate the energy transition to clean sources and stop greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation — something that would resolve around 50% of the issue by 2030.

At COP 29, held in November, the Brazil committed to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions between 59% and 67% by 2035 (equivalent to 850 million and 1.05 billion tons of CO2), in line with the Paris Agreement.

Next year, the country will host COP 30, in Belém (PA). THE expectation is to consolidate global efforts to mitigate negative impacts and stop global warming.

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This content was originally published in Future heat waves could be more lethal than predicted, studies show on the CNN Brasil website.

Source: CNN Brasil