GBP/JPY climbs from weak commercial data from Japan, focus on the CPI

• The sterling pound rises in front of the Japanese Yen Thursday in the midst of a fragile feeling of JPY.
• Japan’s commercial surplus in June does not meet expectations, with car exports to the US, falling 26.7%.
• The unemployment rate of the United Kingdom rises to 4.7%; The average income growth excluding bonds slows down to 5.0% year -on -year.

The sterling pound (GBP) gains positive traction against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, since the feeling around the Yen is still fragile after the disappointing data of the trade balance of Japan. The caution of investors is also increasing before the elections of the Upper House of Japan on July 20, which could cause changes in fiscal and economic policy.

The GBP/JPY crossing remains firm during the negotiation hours in America, around its maximum intradica in 199.56. At the time of writing, the PAR quotes around 199.30, recovering most of the losses of the previous day. That said, the crossing is still trapped within a narrow negotiation range that has been in force for more than a week.

Japan’s commercial report showed that the country registered a surplus of ¥ 153.1 billion, well below the market expectations of ¥ 353.9 billion. Exports fell 0.5% year -on -year, dragged largely due to a 26.7% drop in car shipments to the United States as US tariffs begin to affect. Imports increased 0.2%, which weighs even more on the commercial balance. The disappointing figures generate concerns about the health of the Japanese economy driven by exports and underline the pressure on the YEN, especially in the midst of a limited margin so that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hardens politics against winds against external and internal uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the pound finds support as operators digest a new batch of economic data in the United Kingdom. The unemployment rate increased to 4.7% in the three months to May, while the average income growth excluding bonds was slowed to 5.0% year -on -year, slightly above the expectations of the market of 4.9%, indicating a cooling labor market but still resistant. However, the inflation data published on Wednesday surprised upwards, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising to 3.6% in June, well above the 2% target of the Bank of England. This combination of increased unemployment and persistent inflation presents a challenge for policies responsible. While labor market cooling reinforces the case for interest rate cuts, persistent inflation could delay the timeline of the Bank of England (BOE), keeping markets in tension.

Looking ahead, attention moves to the data of the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Japan, which will be published on Thursday. The report is expected to throw light on the dynamics of internal inflation and could influence market expectations around the next policy movement of the Bank of Japan. Although the underlying inflation has remained above the 2% target of the BOJ in recent months, the Central Bank has adopted a cautious posture, citing the weak domestic demand and external pressures. A stronger IPC reading than expected could rekindle speculation about a gradual policy change, while a weaker fact could reinforce the downward bias of the YEN and maintain the current divergence of policies with the main central banks.