GBP: Likelihood of more US deficit spending may slow Fed rate cuts – Rabobank

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has opened the government’s investment summit with assurances that the Labor Party will restore the UK’s brand as an open, trading nation. The inference is that the UK has seemed less open in recent years, which may be a reference to Brexit, says Jane Foley, FX analyst at Rabobank.

Market expects earnings growth pace to moderate

“This week’s releases on UK CPI inflation and jobs data are expected to be key in shaping market expectations ahead of the BoE policy meeting on November 7. The market expects the pace of earnings growth to moderate.”

“Although CPI inflation readings are also expected to moderate in September, the consensus points to a still ‘too high’ reading of 5.2% year-on-year for services inflation. Following this, Rabobank maintains its view that it is The BoE is likely to cut rates at a gradual pace of once a quarter. The relatively slow pace of BoE rate cuts should provide some support to the GBP going forward.”

“However, none of the US presidential candidates have yet dared to mention budget prudence. The likelihood of further deficit spending in the US, particularly under the Trump administration, could slow the pace of cuts Fed rate hikes and provide support to the USD (as do Trump’s tariff promises). Consequently, we see limited upside potential for Cable going forward.”

Source: Fx Street

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