GBP underperforms after weak retail sales data – Scotiabank

The British Pound (GBP) is down on the day and virtually unchanged on the week when most of its peers have managed to eke out a profit against the USD, notes Shaun Osborne, Head of FX Strategy at Scotiabank.

GBP remains practically unchanged on the week

“UK retail sales fell 0.6% in December, significantly weaker than consensus estimates (+0.3%). November data was also revised down. Data suggests UK growth stagnated (at best) in the fourth quarter.”

“Markets continue to price in an almost certain probability (23bps) of a rate cut in February and have raised expectations of easing over the next year. But a total of 66bps priced through next December still seems a bit light. The governor of the BoE, Bailey, speaking at 16ET.”

“The GBP broke out of a minor uptrend from yesterday’s mid-week low, but losses did not develop. The GBP is largely unchanged on the week, but that may mean the recent downtrend has stalled at 1.21 “A positive week for the GBP next week will improve the technical outlook.”

Source: Fx Street

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