- The sterling pound extends profits while the weak commercial balance of the US and the impact of tariffs weigh on the dollar.
- The markets expect the Fed to maintain rates and that the BOE cut 25 basic points this week; 75 basic flexibility points of both in 2025 are planned.
- The GBP/USD reaches a maximum intradic of 1,3402 as the United Kingdom markets reopens and improves the feeling of risk.
The sterling pound advanced for the second consecutive day, winning more than 0.65% against the US dollar amid a scarce economic agenda on both sides of the Atlantic. The main central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BOE) are preparing for their policy meetings. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is quoted in 1,3381, near the 1.34 mark.
The GBP/USD rises slightly in light data, increased the US trade deficit and growing bets on synchronized flexibility of central banks
The news related to the US trade continued to monopolize the headlines. The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, said the US is negotiating with 17 commercial partners, but not yet with China. He said some agreements could be announced during the week.
Regarding the data, the US trade deficit was extended in March, driven by imports of companies from companies before the effect of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. The US Department of Commerce revealed that the commercial balance stood at -140 billion dollars, more than the -137,000 million expected and exceeded -123.200 million February. Reuters revealed that “imports from China were, however, the lowest in five years and could fell even more since Trump has increased tariffs on Chinese products to an amazing 145%.”
After the data, the GBP/USD extended its upward trend, reaching a daily maximum of 1,3402 as the United Kingdom markets reopened after a long weekend.
Operators preparing for Fed and BOE meetings
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the rates without changes, but the operators will be attentive to the press conference after the meeting of the Fed President Jerome Powell. A day later, the Bank of England (BOE) is expected to reduce rates at 25 basic points (BPS), giving the Fed the advantage in terms of interest rates differential.
However, the parity of interest rates is expected to remain unchanged throughout the year. The markets are valuing 75 basic points of flexibility by the Fed, the same amount as the BOE.
GBP/USD price forecast: technical perspective
The upward trend of the GBP/USD is maintained, but a possible graphic pattern of ‘head and shoulders’ is coming, since buyers seem to be losing some impulse as the torque approaches 1.34. A daily closure above the latter could sponsor a new proof of the maximum of the year to date (YTD) of 1,3443, denying the bearish graphic pattern of ‘head and shoulders’.
On the contrary, if the GBP/USD falls below 1,3300, look for a proof of the last oscillating minimum seen on May 5 in 1,3257. If it exceeds, this could be the first confirmation signal of the ‘head and shoulders’ and pave the way to try lower prices. The immediate support would be 1,3200, followed by the simple mobile average (SMA) of 50 days in 1,3030.
LIBRA ESTERLINA PRICE THIS WEEK
The lower table shows the percentage of sterling pound (GBP) compared to the main currencies this week. Libra sterling was the strongest currency against the US dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.12% | -0.81% | -1.29% | -0.16% | -0.50% | -0.91% | -0.22% | |
| EUR | 0.12% | -0.42% | -0.92% | 0.23% | -0.10% | -0.52% | 0.17% | |
| GBP | 0.81% | 0.42% | -0.73% | 0.64% | 0.31% | -0.11% | 0.59% | |
| JPY | 1.29% | 0.92% | 0.73% | 1.15% | 0.81% | 0.47% | 1.20% | |
| CAD | 0.16% | -0.23% | -0.64% | -1.15% | -0.63% | -0.75% | -0.05% | |
| Aud | 0.50% | 0.10% | -0.31% | -0.81% | 0.63% | -0.42% | 0.29% | |
| NZD | 0.91% | 0.52% | 0.11% | -0.47% | 0.75% | 0.42% | 0.69% | |
| CHF | 0.22% | -0.17% | -0.59% | -1.20% | 0.05% | -0.29% | -0.69% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the sterling pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the GBP (base)/USD (quotation).
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
