- The GBP/USD suffered a hard blow on Wednesday after problems arose from the United Kingdom government.
- The US NFP data data will be published on Thursday of this week.
- American markets will close early this week for Friday vacations in the US.
The GBP/USD collapsed on Wednesday, falling below the level of 1,3600 in a strong fall driven by an acute increase in the yields of the United Kingdom bonds. The intra -purchase action managed to reduce the worst of the minimums, but the action of the cable price is still prepared for more falls as the pound sterling and the US dollar compete for the fund.
The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Kier Starmer, and his government failed to comply with the well -being cuts, a key principle of their budgetary proposals to recover control of the financing of the United Kingdom government. The PM Starmer also left the possibility of tax increases on the table, which caused the anger of political markets and critics. More government instability for the United Kingdom is expected, since the PM Starmer is expected to begin to reorganize its cabinet in a movement to consolidate and maintain control of its party against a complicated economic landscape.
The employment change figures of ADP in the US also fell short on Wednesday, contracting in 33K in net employment gains in a strong reversal of market forecasts for modest growth. ADP tends to serve as a popular (although unstable) prognosis of the US non -agricultural payroll data despite a collapse in the correlation between ADP and NFP employment numbers, the ADP report this week has left stunned investors while reconsidening their expectations for the US economy.
It is expected that US NFP employment data data for June will be around 110K new jobs, slightly below May figures, but still in positive territory. A greater fall in the main employment figures, as well as the growing possibilities of downward reviews pronounced of older data, they foresee a bad future for both the expectations of feat cuts and for the confidence of the operators in which the US economy is well protected from possible economic repercussions of the rapid turning policies of President Donald Trump. The reciprocal tariffs that were announced in April will return to force next week after an extension of 90 days of last minute, but the commercial agreements that the Trump administration expected remain limited in the best of cases.
GBP/USD price forecast
Wednesday’s fall pushed the GBP/USD to its lowest offers in more than a week, eliminating short -term profits and sending the action of the intradication price back to the rising trend lines that have pushed to the consistently higher pair from the minimum of several years recorded in January.
GBP/USD daily graphics
Non -agricultural payrolls – Frequently asked questions
Non -agricultural payroll (NFP) are part of the monthly employment report of the US Labor Statistics Office. The non -agricultural payroll component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the United States during the previous month, not including the agricultural sector.
The number of non -agricultural payroll (NFP) can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of the success with which the Fed is fulfilling its mandate to promote full employment and an inflation of 2%. A relatively high NFP figure means that there are more people used, earning more money and, therefore, probably spending more. A result of relatively low agricultural payrolls, on the other hand, could mean that people are having difficulty finding work. The Fed will normally increase interest rates to combat high inflation caused by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market. “
Non -agricultural payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US dollar. This means that when the figures are higher than expected, the dollar tends to rise and vice versa when they are minors. Non -agricultural payrolls influence the US dollar under its impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP generally means that the Federal Reserve will be more restrictive in its monetary policy, which will support the dollar.
Non -agricultural payrolls generally have a negative correlation with the price of gold. This means that a number of payroll greater than expected will have a depressive effect on the price of gold and vice versa. A higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the US dollar and, like most main raw materials, gold is quoted in US dollars. Therefore, if the US dollar gains value, less dollars are required to buy an ounce of gold. In addition, higher interest rates (which generally helped a higher NFP) also reduce the attractiveness of gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where money will at least generate interest. “
Non -agricultural payrolls are only a component within a broader employment report and can be seen eclipsed by other components. Sometimes, when non -agricultural payrolls are greater than expected, but the average weekly profits are lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the main result and interprets the fall in profits as deflationary. The components of the participation rate and the average weekly hours can also influence the market reaction, but only in rare events such as the “great resignation” or the global financial crisis. “
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
