GBP / USD witnessed a sea change on the first trading day of 2021 and fell more than 160 pips from 1.3700, or new 32-month highs. Commerzbank analysts expect to see a drop towards 1.3540 / 1.3483 as there are divergences pointing to pullbacks. They maintain a constructive long-term vision.
Key statements:
GBP / USD nearly hit the low of 1.3712 from February 2018 and so far climbed to 1.3705 before forming a key day reversal yesterday. As the 1.3705 high has also been accompanied by a negative divergence in the daily RSI, we expect the September highs of 1.3540 / 1.3483 and early December to be revised. Further down is the low of the end of December of 1.3350, the low of December 21 at 1.3189 and also the low of December of 1.3135 ”.
“Just a rally above 1.3712 on a closing day chart basis would push the 1.3836 low from February 2016 to the fore. In the long term, it is targeting the 2018 peak of 1.4377 ”.
“Usually, upward pressure should continue as long as GBP / USD remains above its December low of 1.3135 “.
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