GDP preview shows economy started 2nd semester stronger, says economist

In an interview with CNN This Thursday (15), the chief economist at Inter, Rafaela Vitoria, assesses that the IBC-Br of 1.7% released today by the Central Bank indicates that the country’s economic growth is higher than expected now in the second semester.

“It was really a surprise. And it shows that the economy started stronger now in the second half of what we had expected.”

Rafaela Vitoria points to the Services sector, which helped push the index up, as it has been rising in the last three months. Another positive data would be the growth of the industry in July, a sector that is resuming with the normalization of supply chains, which also contributed to the positive surprise in the index.

With that, says Rafaela, new revisions are expected for the year’s GDP, reinforced by previous August data that also show growth in the automobile industry, as shown by Anfavea, and in the cardboard industry, which indicate an improvement.

“These preliminary data show that we have greater growth. The indicators point to a growth [do PIB de 2022] closer to 3% than to 2.5%. So we should have a better second half than expected.”

The economist recalls that in this period of 2021, the industry faced a more serious period of lack of inputs.

Fees

Next week, the Central Bank’s Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) will meet to define the basic interest rate, the Selic, and the expectation, says Rafaela Vitoria, is that the rate will remain at the 13.75% that is currently.

“Today, most expectations are in this line, as well as this week’s Bulletin Focus and the market that also bet on this maintenance”. However, he points out, with the economy growing stronger, this data is a “point of attention for the Central Bank”.

This is because the increase in consumption in the second half of the year may be accompanied by a persistence of inflation, he says. “The Central Bank must take this economic growth into account, with the impact it may have on inflation, and consider its decision.”

Despite the expectation of maintenance of the Selic, a possible increase is not ruled out. “It is expected that it will continue, but with a statement that it will remain at this level [mais alto] longer, while monitoring whether stronger activity will cause inflation or not.”

Vitoria highlights that preliminary inflation data indicate a downward trend.

IBC-Br

The country’s economic activity increased by 1.17% in July compared to the previous month, according to the Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), released this Thursday (15th) by the monetary authority.

In relation to July last year, the increase is 3.87% and, in 12 months, 2.09%. The median of market expectations pointed to an increase of 0.30%. In the annual comparison, the forecast was for an advance of 2.60%.

To CNN Brasil Business economists said that the result reinforces the solid start of domestic activity in the second half of the year and goes against the expectation of a slowdown in the pace of economic growth.

*Text published by Ana Carolina Nunes