If the variation in domestic activity is null in the fourth quarter of this year, the Brazilian GDP will close 2022 with a 3% increase, estimated the Economic Policy Secretariat of the Ministry of Economy this Thursday (1st), after the release of data for the third quarter by IBGE.
In a more positive scenario, the portfolio projects that GDP will grow 3.1% in the year if the increase in activity is 0.2% to 0.4% this quarter. If the performance is better, the expansion will be above 3.2%.
“The coincident indicators and the statistical loading show that activity will continue to grow at moderate rates at the end of the year and opens up good prospects for the following year,” said the ministry in a technical note.
This Thursday, the IBGE pointed out that GDP lost more strength than expected in the third quarter, but still marked the highest level in the historical series, growing 0.4% over the previous three months – the market estimate pointed to up 0.7%, according to a Reuters poll.
According to the folder, the data show the continuity of the recovery of the economy after the effects of the pandemic, with the level of activity approaching the trend before the health crisis.
The document points out that there was growth in the margin in almost all components of supply and in all of the demand in the third quarter, with an increase in investments explained by the increase in the production of machines and the recovery of civil construction.
According to the ministry, the deceleration of economic growth in the period was mainly motivated by the performance of industry and commerce.
“Considering market expectations for interest rates and inflation, it is expected that the lagged effects of monetary policy will have the greatest restrictive effect on activity in the second half of the year,” he said.
“On the other hand, there is continuity in the expansion of service indicators and relative stabilization in agricultural production indicators,” he added.
The ministry pointed out that previous GDP measurements have been revised upwards by the IBGE, generating a positive carryover effect for periods ahead.
Source: CNN Brasil
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