German GDP in the fourth quarter: start of a recession? — Commerzbank

Jörg Krämer, Chief Economist at Commerzbank, offers a brief analysis of German preliminary GDP, which showed that the eurozone’s largest economy contracted by 0.2% during the fourth quarter. This figure was below the consensus estimates of a flat reading and the 0.4% growth registered in the previous quarter.

Notable Statements:

“Contrary to the guidance of the Federal Statistical Office, German GDP in the fourth quarter fell slightly from that of the third quarter (-0.2%). This was mainly due to private consumption. Consumers are not immune to the erosion of their power record inflation Another argument in favor of a recession – albeit a mild one – is that central banks in many countries have had to massively raise their interest rates because of inflation In addition, German companies have probably already much of the large order book created during Corona has been settled. We continue to expect German GDP to contract by 0.5%.”

Source: Fx Street

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