German orders up, but still down – Commerzbank

Dr. Ralph Solveen, Senior Economist at Commerzbank, offers a brief analysis of the upbeat data release from Germany earlier this Tuesday, which showed Factory Orders rose 0.8% in October.

Notable Statements:

“The order trend remains downward despite the October increase. This is also supported by the results of the IFO survey, in which companies revised downward their assessment of the demand trend until recently. little. Obviously, the notable rises in interest rates by many central banks increasingly curb the demand for German industrial products.”

“As many companies continue to have very high order books, it is unlikely that weaker demand will hit production as strongly this time around as in previous cycles. However, the trend is likely to continue to be down in the next few years.” coming months, partly because output in energy-intensive sectors is likely to decline further due to the sharp rise in energy prices.Consequently, manufacturing is likely to contribute to the contraction of the German economy in the first half of next year, even though the risk of a crash triggered by gas rationing has been significantly reduced.”

Source: Fx Street

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