Germany and Greek-Turkish relations

The new German government will maintain the same line towards Turkey, with priority given to de-escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean, according to Ronald Maynardus.

Much has been written and said about the policy of the new German government. The men and women around Olaf Solz do not have the privilege of a grace period. The pandemic and the threat of war in Eastern Europe have thrown the new group into the deep. Part of the new story is that, despite announcements of radical change, many things will remain the same. Continuity is a feature of German politics. Ultimately, the chancellor is the one who decides. And Olaf Solz embodies political continuity better than anyone else. This is especially true of foreign policy. In the final analysis, the Minister of Foreign Affairs does not decide on major issues. The chancellor has the last word. This was the case during the 16 years of Angela Merkel’s rule and will continue to be so in the future.

One of the most important issues in German foreign policy is Turkey. There is no other country that maintains such close relations with this country as Germany. For this reason, the question of the future of these relations and of German policy towards Ankara is of great interest. There are still no specific statements on how the new government will position itself in Berlin on Greek-Turkish issues. Reading the election programs, he highlighted the demand of the Greens to ban the export of German submarines to Turkey and to terminate the EU agreement with Turkey on the 2015 refugee. These are election promises. It is worth noting that neither of these two points is included in the new government program, which is 177 pages long and otherwise contains a lot of details on various issues.

Lack of time for information?

The first signs of Germany’s future policy can be found in the minutes of the recent meeting of EU foreign ministers, which dealt with Turkey and Cyprus, among others. Normally ministerial consultations are confidential. Therefore, the publication of the minutes of the Brussels meeting in the Cypriot (and Greek) press is an exceptional event. One of the most important points is that the German government opposed the sanctions against Turkey. According to the minutes, the new Foreign Minister justified her attitude with a lack of time to study the documents. If true, this is a weak and – ultimately – dishonest excuse. The rejection of sanctions against Turkey is a pillar of German policy. Berlin was not in favor of punishing Turkey for its behavior in the past and – as we see – it is not now.

The last time the issue of sanctions against Turkey came to the fore was in 2020 during the crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean. Angela Merkel then mediated between Ankara and Athens and achieved a relaxation of tension, without imposing punitive measures. Maintaining de-escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean remains the first priority of German policy in Greek-Turkish. In this regard, Berlin (and Brussels) is satisfied with the current situation. In a joint statement in mid-December, the foreign ministers explicitly “welcomed” the de-escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean. Indeed, the situation in 2021 is much better than in 2020, despite the verbal challenges.

The era after Erdoganν

And while the government has made no official announcement about Turkey, political analysts are looking for the right policy for the future. One piece of advice that is often heard these days is that Berlin wants to look to the future and plan now for the post-Erdogan era. The scripts are based on assumptions, no one knows what the future will be like. It is premature, if not naive, to assume that another government in Turkey will pursue a more lenient, moderate policy. Finally, there is still a long way to go before the elections.

History shows that when the rulers in Turkey are under pressure at home, they like to escalate tensions on the foreign fronts. The next Greek-Turkish crisis is a matter of time. It would be a great surprise if in such a case the government of Olaf Solz would react differently from Angela Merkel.

Ronald Maynardus

Dr. Ronald Maynardus is a political analyst, commentator and lead researcher at ELIAMEP. In the mid-1990s he had been its director Greek edition of Deutsche Welle.

Source: Deutsche Welle