Germany Critical elections in two traditional “castles” of the Christian Democrats

The elections in Baden-Württemberg and the Rhineland-Palatinate officially mark the beginning of a year of crucial Germany, culminating in the parliamentary elections of September 26.

Angela Merkel’s imminent departure from politics, the aftermath of the pandemic, the new leadership of the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and the scandals of the last days compose an unprecedented picture of the country that in recent decades has been known for its – almost boring – stability of.

The two states that come to the polls tomorrow were traditional “castles” of the Christian Democrats. Baden-Württemberg, home of Porsche and Daimler, as well as Wolfgang Schieble, served as CDU Prime Minister from 1953 to 2011. At the same time, he was elected the first Green Mayor of a major city, in 2002 in Freiburg. The current head of the CDU government, Winfried Kretschmann, who has led the state since 2011, is not the typical “green” politician. In previous elections, the main spot of his campaign showed him getting into a luxury Mercedes S – at least it was a hybrid.

Mr Kretsman still holds the lead in opinion polls. In fact, as the government partner’s percentages shrank, so did his own performance. According to a poll by the INSA Institute on behalf of BILD, CDU candidate Susanne ‘Eisenman is limited to 25% and is threatened with a record low for her party in the state. The Greens are currently at 32%. Under these circumstances, a continuation of the current Green-CDU coalition with the weakened Christian Democrats or a Green-Social Democrat (SPD) -Liberal Liberal (FDP) alliance would be possible.

The CDU has traditionally been the first political force since the creation of the Rhineland-Palatinate in 1946 until 1991. Homeland of Helmut Kohl, who used to invite foreign leaders to his favorite tavern in Didesheim. Mikhail Gorbachev, François Mitterrand, George W. Bush and Margaret Thatcher passed through there. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) has been at the helm of the state government for the last 20 years. Malou Dreyer now leads a coalition with the Greens and the Liberals (FDP). In the measurements of this period, the SPD and the CDU collect 30%, with a more probable outcome a new government SPD – FDP – Greens or a coalition “Jamaica” (CDU – Greens – FDP). Both groups have 48% of the vote. The state is one of the Social Democrats’ most serious hopes of showing some momentum in the run-up to the September election.

The CDU hoped some time ago that it would achieve a dynamic return to the two states. Mrs Dreyer, however, is considered competent and effective. Even more so Mr. Kretzmann in Baden-Württemberg. In addition, the situation for the Christian Democrats is aggravated by the scandal with the supply of masks, the revelation of which led to the resignation of MP Nicholas Label from Mannheim (Baden-Württemberg) and another member of the Christian Social Party (CS). The day before yesterday, scandals were added to the excessive “closeness” of Deputy Economy Minister Thomas Bryce and MP Mark Hauptmann with the leadership of Azerbaijan, which resulted in the resignation of the latter from the Bundestag. At the same time, the prolonged lockdown, problems with Covid-19 vaccines and tests have begun to tarnish the government’s positive image in terms of pandemic management.

At 18:00 (local time) tomorrow night, CDU leader Armin Lassett, who has been here for two months, is probably expecting bad news. And although he knows that no one will hold him personally responsible in the event of defeat, his concern will be mainly about the imminent election of the candidate for Chancellor for the Christian Union (CDU / CSU) in the run-up to the September elections. A failure tomorrow could mean that some in the party will start to think – perhaps out loud – that there may be a more suitable candidate, such as Bavarian Prime Minister and CSU leader Markus Zender.