Germany-India: The whole background of tomorrow’s Solts-Monti meeting

With military honors, Chancellor Olaf Solz (SPD) will receive on Monday a guest who has not yet found clear words about the war in Ukraine. The reason for the speech of the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, who is coming to Berlin for the so-called government consultations – a bilateral working meeting from which the German government hopes for a very deep exchange of views.

However, according to Handelsblatt, the intended expansion of the strategic partnership is overshadowed by differences over the war in Ukraine: The New Delhi government refuses to condemn the Russian attack and names the Kremlin as the aggressor.

Even before his departure, The Monti government has made it clear that it does not want to back down from its position – which Russia has explicitly praised. India resolutely rules out Western sanctions against Russia. A Foreign Ministry spokesman said ahead of Monti’s departure for Europe, where he plans to visit Denmark and France, as well as Germany: “Our position on sanctions has not changed at all.”

Instead of putting economic pressure on Russia, India wants to ensure that business with that country can continue unhindered. Referring to Western sanctions, the Foreign Ministry said: “We want to stabilize our economic interactions with Russia and ensure that our companies and our interests are not affected.”

The meeting in Berlin, which will be accompanied by several ministers, is Monti’s first trip abroad since the start of the war in Ukraine. India’s decision to maintain traditionally close political and economic ties with the Moscow government despite the invasion has caused frustration in Europe and the United States. “We want a situation where our sanctions will not be undermined and no friendly country will try to reap the economic benefits of the war,” said Jolt Plotner, Solts’ foreign and security policy adviser, during a visit to New Delhi.

Scholz sees common values ​​and interests with India

However, even some of the top Western politicians have not been able to change India’s stance recently: Both British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have traveled to New Delhi independently in recent days to discuss Ukraine, among other issues.

Neither of them made significant concessions – as did US President Joe Biden, who had criticized India’s oil deals with Russia in a teleconference with Monti in mid-April.

The German government also obviously does not expect that the intergovernmental consultations will lead to a significant approach to Russia. Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said before the talks that the aim was to exchange views and clarify his own positions.

According to him, the German government does not want to make India’s clear position on the Ukrainian side a prerequisite for closer relations. Referring to India’s stance so far, Hebestreit said: “Whether this stands in the way of a genuine strategic partnership, we should probably judge over time.”

Chancellor Soltz recently named India as one of the countries with which Germany wants to work more closely in the Asia-Pacific region – along with Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea. “Germany shares common values ​​and interests with these countries,” he said during a visit to Tokyo. However, India’s interests differ from those of Germany in dealing with the war in Ukraine.

The country considers itself neutral in the conflict and has abstained from voting on resolutions critical of Russia at both the UN Security Council and the General Assembly.

“Moving away from Russia will hurt India,” New Delhi said

A move away from Russia would hurt India in the eyes of the government in New Delhi: Asia’s third largest economy is dependent on Russian military supplies and does not want to risk weakening its military, especially in the face of conflict with China. At the same time, Russia is also providing energy: since the start of the war in Ukraine, the subcontinent has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil.

Given purchase agreements from countries such as India, the German government fears that a possible EU oil embargo could not have the desired effect. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Thursday that such an embargo could lead to a sharp rise in world market prices. “A situation could arise in which Putin, who continues to sell oil to other countries, would get more money with less oil,” he warned.

So far, however, Russia has not been able to impose price increases on its oil deals with India – quite the opposite: according to its own account, India was buying from Russia mainly because the country had agreed to reduce prices after the start of the wave of Western sanctions.

The government in New Delhi also presented the volume of supplies as relatively small. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said the country buys less energy from Russia in a month than Europe in an afternoon.

India is currently working with Russia on a new payment mechanism to make it easier for the two countries to settle in rubles and rupees in the future, rather than diverting the US dollar. According to media reports, representatives of the Russian and Indian central banks have recently been negotiating the details. However, the final decision has obviously not yet been made.