Germany – Study: Five scenarios on how the war in Ukraine could end

The Institut für Sicherheitspolitik der Universität Kiel (Institut für Sicherheitspolitik der Universität Kiel) analyzes the military situation in Ukraine.

There are reasonable doubts as to whether it is possible to reach an agreement with Vladimir Putin, a liar who accuses others of violating the treaties, Handelsblatt notes.

However, analysts at the Kiel University Institute for Political Security, led by Professor Joachim Krause, conclude that there will be “some form of end to the war”.

The analysis was published earlier this week. The following are possible scenarios, write its authors, are the following:

1. The submission scenario

In this scenario, Russia manages to subdue Ukraine after months of fighting to the point where there is nothing left of a functioning Ukrainian state entity. This scenario is at the moment quite unlikely, but not ruled out.

It is true that Russia will never be able to conquer all of Ukraine. But it is possible that after months of war and growing Ukrainian territorial losses, the will of Ukrainians to defend themselves will weaken and people in Kyiv who promise to finally bring peace and accept the permanent presence of Russian troops and non-aligned will come to power in Kiev. regular units.

2. The “winter war” scenario

With Russia occupying parts of Ukraine on one side but failing to oust the country on the other,a political agreement – such as the one between Finland and the Soviet Union at the end of the 1940 Winter War, according to which the occupying forces must withdraw, but the country must cede territory and consider itself permanently neutral.

It seems that The Ukrainian government is currently seeking such a solution.

3. The scenario of popular democracy

In this case there will be a freezing of the current situation. The fighting would stop, but there would be no negotiated settlement and Russia would allow the emergence many small “democratic republics” on the territory of Ukrainewhich he would support.

The scenario of the People’s Republics would mean that Ukraine remains in a weak and divided situation that will destroy the country in the long run. This scenario is possible and could be used by Russia as a lever of pressure against Kiev after the ceasefire.

4. The scenario of shame and disgrace

In this case, Russia would suffer a shameful defeat and the army would withdraw as the losses would be too great and the desired result of internal stabilization would be jeopardized.

The scenario of shame and disgrace is rather unlikely, but can not be ruled out. It should be accompanied by internal political changes in Russia.

5. The intervention scenario

According to this scenario, there will be a limited extension of the war as a result of an intervention by Western powers in favor of Ukraine. This intervention will not provoke a “world war”, but there may be Russian attacks with long-range cruise missiles on military targets in European NATO countries.

A military intervention could have various components (not necessarily NATO) to deal with the humanitarian emergency, such as the deployment of military forces in western Ukraine, the establishment of humanitarian corridors and air raids. Such involvement is justified if it is recognizable that it supports the legitimate defense struggle of the Ukrainians and improves the humanitarian situation of the population in the face of the brutal Russian war.

The aim of the intervention should be to come up with a form of winter war scenario that will be more beneficial to Ukraine. For example, no concessions of territory, but, on the contrary, a commitment to neutrality and an agreement with Russia on an arms control regime that will take into account the security concerns of both sides.

Source: Capital

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