The date on which Angela Merkel will leave the post of chancellor is looming, after fifteen years at the head of the country. The German government proposed Wednesday, November 25 that the general elections which will organize his succession to the chancellery be held on Sunday, September 26, 2021. The proposal made in the Council of Ministers has yet to be formally approved by the Head of State Frank-Walter Steinmeier .
This election will mark, whatever the result, a break for Germany with the scheduled departure from power of Angela Merkel, Chancellor since 2005. Angela Merkel had announced at the end of 2018, after several electoral setbacks by her Christian conservative party – Democrat (CDU), not wanting to run for a fifth term.
Now 66 years old, the one who seemed a few months ago won by the erosion of power now enjoys a record popularity rating. It is praised for its good management of the health crisis, more than seven in ten Germans saying they are satisfied with its action.
Continuity or right turn
As a result, his party, which for several years had seen its electoral base eroded, has regained strength and is largely in the lead in the polls with more than 36% of favorable opinions. The German Christian Democrats are divided over the continuation between a centrist current in favor of continuity and the temptation of a turn to the right.
A congress must in principle appoint its new president in mid-January. Three candidates are in the running: two moderates, Armin Laschet, head of the most populous region, North Rhine-Westphalia, as well as Norbert Röttgen, a foreign policy expert, and a supporter of a more on the right, Friedrich Merz, a historical opponent of Angela Merkel.
The fight for the presidency should be played between Armin Laschet and Friedrich Merz. The winner will be in a good position to then become the German Conservative candidate for the chancellery in the parliamentary elections of September 2021, but without immediate guarantee. Because the decision on this must be taken later, probably in the spring. And it is not excluded that another suitor will end up being chosen: the Bavarian leader Markus Söder, in charge of the sister party of the CDU, the CSU. He has become one of the most popular personalities in Germany thanks to his management, considered effective, of the pandemic in Bavaria.
The Greens, become essential
Facing the conservatives, the Social Democrats, currently minority partners in the coalition with Ms Merkel, still cannot take off: they stagnate in the polls between 16 and 17%. Their candidate for the chancellery is the current Minister of Finance Olaf Scholz, a supporter of a moderate line. The surprise could come from environmentalists: credited with nearly 20% of the vote, they have become essential in the German political landscape, where they participate in eleven of the sixteen regional governments, sometimes sharing power with the left or the right.
So far, the Greens have not closed the door to a future coalition with the conservatives at the national level, a scheme which had already failed to see the light of day in 2017 but which had flipped, for lack of agreement with the liberals, then third partners necessary to come of age.
The negotiations for the formation of the previous government had been made difficult due to the appearance of a new actor on the national scene, the far right AfD, which had reached almost 13% of the vote and made its historic entry into Parliament. She is now credited with a score of around 10%, which could facilitate negotiations for the formation of a government with a stable majority.
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