The consolidation of the price of bitcoin in the range from $ 76 thousand to $ 87 thousand, as well as worsening onchain-metrics, can indicate a bear scenario for the main cryptocurrency quotations. Such conclusions were drawn by the analytical company Glassnode, noting that the market is still experiencing an emotional and financial “hangover” after the January maximums, writes RBC Crypto.
The most important level was the price of bitcoin about $ 80 thousand, as noted in Glassnode. When the price fell below this mark, the market always appeared on the market for the main cryptocurrency.
The price of Bitcoin for the first time after the victory of Donald Trump in the election of the US president fell below $ 80 thousand on February 28. Since then, she only once, in early March, reached $ 95 thousand and returned to the level of $ 85 thousand within a few days, near which almost all of March was located. According to CoinmarketCap, on April 3, 16:00 Moscow time, the BTC price is about $ 82 thousand. The historical maximum was reached on January 20, when the price exceeded $ 109 thousand, and at least 2025 was recorded on March 11 at $ 77 thousand.
Glassnode specializes in the analysis of onchain-data blockchain bitcoin. The so-called onchain analytics is a study of information obtained from public blockchain networks such as bitcoin and Ethereum. Blockchain technology is an open register of information with the entire history of transactions, allowing any competent person to see these operations and draw conclusions. Based on their own metrics, the company is trying to determine behavioral and price patterns and use them for forecasting.
“So far there is no evidence that a structural bull shift in dynamics is taking place,” the report says.
Experts also noted that the weak growth of bitcoin prices in the end of March only confirmed that the market was experiencing a global correction from a peak in January. And short -term growths of growth could not turn over a more powerful descending trend, accompanied by low liquidity and decreasing profit of investors.
By the profit of investors in Glassnode means unrealized profit of market participants based on the analysis of bitcoin addresses in the blockchain. Analysts calculate this indicator based on the last movement of cryptocurrency. For example, if the user has replenished his cryptoadress with bitcoin on November 10, 2024, then Glassnode will consider this a purchase for the price for that day. Thus, they calculate unrealized profits and losses, that is, likely income or loss that the investor could receive by selling bitcoin at current prices. The realized price is the average price at which bitcoins moved for the last time. Glassnode analysts track the course at the time of the last transaction of each coin, then calculate the average value. This indicator helps to evaluate which part of the investors are in profit and which is at a loss.
Based on the average one -month and six -month indicators of the price of Bitcoin, Glassnode revealed signs of investor behavior preceding the occurrence of a bear trend. Since 2020, there were four such situations, after one of them the market spent 25 months in a bear trend. Three others are characterized by two to three months of the side movement of prices with subsequent growth.
The realized price of bitcoin depending on the period of transactions, based on medium -sized and six -month indicators. Source: Glassnode
“If the script is repeated, this will mean that the market will continue to experience the period of weakness before the bulls can restore a reliable ascending trend,” the experts wrote.
In the conclusion of Glassnode analysts, although they noted the signs of bitcoin weakness, they said that its scale is still far from previous bear cycles and there is the possibility of further deterioration of the situation. Bitcoin correction has a significant scale, but has not yet reached the seriousness of previous bear markets.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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