The Bitcoin market has reached a turning point from which, instead of taking profits, most investors will be forced to take losses. This is what Glassnode analysts have come to based on their own aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) metric. The SOPR reflects the data on the spent outputs and is calculated as the ratio of the sales price to the price at the moment the coins are credited to the wallets. The prefix “a” in this case means that all outputs with a lifetime of less than one hour were excluded from the calculations.
Glassnode analysts interpret their observations in favor of a bullish scenario:
“For the SOPR to go lower, investors must be willing to sell at a loss, which is unlikely in current market conditions. aSOPR has experienced a reboot after a significant recovery in recent months. This means that the coins transferred between investors, on average, are no longer sold at a profit. ”
SOPR typically hovers around 1, but Bitcoin’s vertical rally since the end of last year has hit above 1.25. At the same time, in a bull market, values below 1 do not persist, as investors do not want to sell at a loss.
Glassnode says they have been waiting for this moment as confirmation of the market stabilization needed to continue the rally.
“The above chart indicates that the current correction is coming to an end, and this is a bullish signal,” the authors add.
At the same time, they state that the NUPL (net unrealized profit / loss) indicator was about to break out of the “faith” zone and enter the “euphoria” zone. Historically, over 95% of profitable investor shares has been a sure sign of a high. In the considered classification “euphoria” corresponds to values above 75%, “faith” – 50%, “optimism” – 25%, “hope” – 0%, and everything below – “surrender”. In this way Glassnode tries to define macrocycles in the market.
However, the breakout did not materialize, and the current decline is helping the market cool off, as it did in mid-2017. Then, after the formation of a similar signal, the price of bitcoin rose by another 900%.

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