Moody’s expects advanced economies to expand 2.6% in 2022, and emerging markets 3.8%, below the agency’s previous forecasts of 3.2% and 4.2%, respectively.
“Risks that could further lower forecasts include an escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine and a faster-than-expected slowdown in China’s growth,” the risk agency said in a report.
However, Moody’s points out that, with the exception of Russia, a recession is not expected in any of the G20 countries in 2022 or 2023.
“Still, there are a number of risks that could further harm the economic outlook, including further upward pressure on commodity prices, longer-lasting supply chain disruptions or a larger-than-expected slowdown in China. Aggressive monetary tightening can also become a catalyst for a recession,” said Madhavi Bokil, senior vice president/CSR at Moody’s.
Looking ahead, the agency believes the next few months will be critical, as central banks tighten monetary policy in response to higher inflation, there is an increase in financial market volatility and asset revaluation.
Source: CNN Brasil
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