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Global experts worried about the future of the economy, poll says

Many business, political and academic leaders are extremely pessimistic about the threat that Covid-19 still poses, even as the pandemic enters its third year. They fear that an uneven economic recovery could deepen divisions within societies and between countries.

More than 84% of global experts consulted by the World Economic Forum are very concerned or concerned about the outlook for the world, according to the forum’s Global Risks Report, published Tuesday.

Only 12% of experts have a positive view and only 4% reported feeling optimistic.

“Most respondents expect the next three years to be characterized by consistent volatility and multiple surprises or fractured trajectories that will separate relative winners and losers,” the WEF said.

With only half of the world’s population fully vaccinated, the WEF said vaccine inequality is creating a divergent economic recovery “that risks exacerbating pre-existing social cleavages and geopolitical tensions”.

Only 11% of the nearly 1,000 experts and leaders who responded to the group’s survey expect the global economic recovery to accelerate over the next three years.

Developing countries, excluding China, will lag even further behind advanced economies, according to the survey.

More than 40% of the experts and leaders surveyed by the WEF come from the business world, while 16% represent government and 17% work in academia.

Approximately 45% live in Europe, while 15% come from North America and 13% are based in Asia.

“The economic fallout from the pandemic is adding to labor market imbalances, protectionism and growing digital, educational and skills gaps that risk splitting the world into diverging trajectories,” said the WEF, which announced last month that it would postpone its 2022 summit in Davos, Switzerland.

Looking further ahead, failure to act on the climate crisis was the biggest risk identified by experts over the next decade, followed by extreme weather, loss of biodiversity, erosion of social cohesion, livelihood crises and infectious diseases.

Debt crises are also among the top 10 most threatening global risks.

“The climate crisis remains the biggest long-term threat facing humanity,” said Peter Giger, chief risk officer for the Zurich Insurance Group, which partnered with the WEF to produce the report.

“It is not too late for governments and companies to act on the risks they face and drive a transition [energética] innovative, determined and inclusive that protects economies and people”.

Risks are also looming miles above Earth, according to the WEF, which said space is becoming increasingly militarized as new commercial operators upset the traditional balance of power on the ungoverned frontier.

“A consequence of accelerated space activity is an increased risk of collisions that could lead to the proliferation of space debris and impact orbits that host the infrastructure of key systems on Earth, damage valuable space equipment, or trigger international tensions,” the group said.

Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said earlier this month that China and the United States are turning inward, reducing their ability to provide global leadership and respond to challenges.

Analysts at the group also warned of the risks of poor digital governance, Russian aggression, rising tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and a slow transition to cleaner energy.

Reference: CNN Brasil

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