Morgan Stanley predicts global economic growth this year will be less than half that of 2021, given the risks of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Covid-19 outbreak in China, even as central banks tighten monetary policy to control inflation. record.
The financial institution expects global growth to be 2.9%, compared with expansion of 6.2% in 2021 on an annual basis.
“The slowdown is global, driven by the combination of declining fiscal momentum, tighter monetary policy, continued pressure from Covid, lingering supply chain friction and, more recently, repercussions from the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” economists at Morgan Stanley wrote. in a report published on Tuesday (10).
With a resolution to the Ukraine crisis looking unlikely and global central banks already trying to slow activity to tame inflation, economists at Morgan Stanley expect economic growth to be limited.
Morgan Stanley said slower global growth will be broad. The only two major economies where the institution does not see a substantial slowdown are Japan and India.
“Now we don’t see global GDP returning to the pre-Covid trend on the forecast horizon,” he added.
Source: CNN Brasil
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