Global trade to hit record near $32 trillion in 2022: UN agency

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) predicts that global trade should reach a record level of almost US$ 32 trillion in 2022. However, the organization considers that its growth turned negative during the second half of this year.

“Global trade is expected to reach a record level of around US$32 trillion in 2022, with trade in goods expected to total nearly US$25 trillion (an increase of around 10% from 2021), while trade in services should total nearly $7 trillion (an increase of about 15% from 2021). These record levels are largely due to robust growth in the first half of 2022,” he explains.

In a report, the institution highlights that the deterioration of economic conditions and the increase in uncertainties resulted in a slowdown in trade during the second half of 2022. “However, the decline in global trade was nominal, as the volume of trade continued to increase throughout 2022, a sign of resilient global demand. Part of the fall in the value of international trade during the second half of 2022 is due to a decrease in the prices of primary products, especially energy”, he ponders.

In addition, the document shows that the demand for foreign goods has proved to be resilient throughout the current year, with trade volumes increasing by 3%. “In Q3 2022, the value of global merchandise trade was significantly above Q3 2021 levels for both developing and developed countries. Trade between developing countries was about 13% higher than in the same period of 2021”, he adds.

On the other hand, the report points out that geopolitical frictions, persistent inflation and weaker global demand are expected to negatively affect global trade throughout 2023. “The ongoing trade slowdown is expected to worsen in 2023. , negative factors seem to outweigh the positive trends”, he concludes.