Global Uncertainty Index fires under Donald Trump’s tariff war

The global uncertainty rate is on the rise, driven by the US President Donald Trump’s fees and goals. The calculation, based on reports from The Economist’s intelligence unit, indicates the severity of the scenario: January 2025 was the third worst month of the index in the last 17 years-behind only the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic (2020) and Trump’s last tariff war against China (2019).

The current rate exceeds the level registered in other heavy crises, such as the collapse of debt of European countries (2012) and the referendum that led to the UK departure from the European Union (2016).

Chart Visualization

Although identifying only the perception of analysts, the impacts of uncertainty on the economy are palpable. Among them, the postponement of business decisions and the lack of predictability in the short -term planning of companies.

“Uncertainty is precisely because we don’t know what Trump’s goal is. Since it is certain that it will touch this protectionist policy, the ideal would be to have a type of schedule with everything established. Now we don’t know what the next target, the next rate. And even if what is placed will indeed be implemented, ”says Marcela Kawauti, chief economist at Lifetime.


What do you want with tariffs?

Trump has adopted customs tariffs as a tool that promises to solve different challenges at the same time, including the growing US fiscal deficit and the resumption of industrial strength in the country. At the same time, the US president uses rates as an instrument of diplomatic pressure.

By pursuing different goals, the Republican created different tariff categories.

On the one hand, there are those that have no commercial intention, such as implementation – and then the retreat – of tariffs over Canada and Mexico seeking to reduce migratory flow at US borders.

There are also tariffs that seek to protect based companies in American territory, such as those imposed horizontally on steel and aluminum produced outside the US. And lastly, the promise of a “fair treatment” for commercial allies, seeking to “retaliate” countries that implement larger barriers than those of the American border.

Added, rates point to an increasingly isolated global scenario with less integrated productive chains.

In the US market, the uncertainty added to the expansion of barriers melted the market value of the companies traded on the Scholarship.

Companies that appear in the S&P 500 index, for example, closed the trading session on Thursday (13) with a 10% lower market value than observed in early February.

The index of CNN International which measures the perception of the American operators points out that the market operates under “extreme fear” since early March.

This content was originally published in a global uncertainty index fires under Donald Trump’s tariff war on CNN Brazil.

Source: CNN Brasil

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