Gold is strengthened about $ 3,300 as commercial concerns resurface before the tariff deadline on August 1

• The gold rises above $ 3,300 after reaching a minimum of one month on Wednesday.
• The safe refuge demand increases while the markets are prepared for the latest USA tariff ads before the deadline of August 1.
• The technical environment remains in a range between $ 3,250 and $ 3,450 with a weak impulse.

The gold (Xau/USD) bounces sharply on Thursday after falling to a minimum of one month of $ 3,268 on Wednesday, pressured by stronger American data than expected and the decision of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain interest rates without changes. However, the demand for sure shelter has resurfaced since then, with buyers entering to boost a rapid recovery.

At European negotiation hours, the metal is about $ 3,306, with an increase of almost 0.95% in the day. The rebound is supported by the increase in commercial tensions before the deadline of August 1 and a modest setback in the US dollar (USD) from a maximum of two months, helping the metal to recover the key level of $ 3,300.

The US president, Donald Trump, is expected to announce final tariffs on several countries that have not yet reached an agreement later on Thursday. Tariffs will take effect on Friday, August 1, keeping the feeling of the market fragile.

On Wednesday, President Trump revealed a series of aggressive commercial measures, starting with a 25% tariff about all Indian imports, citing national security concerns about the growing defense and energy ties of India with Russia.

It also increased tariffs on Brazilian imports by 40%, carrying the total effective duty to 50%, with selective exemptions in products such as orange juice, fertilizers and aircraft. In addition, a 50% tariff on copper -based products, including tubes and electrical wiring, was introduced, although raw copper, cathodes and concentrates were excluded.

Amid the renewed tariff threats, some optimism emerged on Wednesday when the United States (USA) and South Korea finished a commercial agreement just before the deadline.

Under the agreement, the US will impose a 15% tariff on South Korean imports, significantly lower than the 25% previously threatened. In return, South Korea promised to invest 350,000 million dollars in America. Until now, the US has ended commercial framework agreements with the European Union (EU) and Japan, both include strategic investment commitments and tariff alignment in key sectors.

In addition, bilateral agreements have been reached with the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines. Meanwhile, a 90 -day commercial truce with China is about to expire on August 12, without any agreement or extension has been announced.

Looking ahead, operators will focus their attention on the key economic data of the US that will be published later on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The calendar includes the Personal Consumer Price Index (PCE) for June, the Federal Reserve preferred inflation indicator, together with the Personal Consumer Price Index (PCE) and initial unemployment subsidy applications.

Market movements: the Fed pause and weak yields keep the gold anchored

• The Fed maintained stable interest rates at 4.25% -4.50% on Wednesday, with two FOMC members disseminating in favor of a cut. President Jerome Powell adopted a cautious tone at the press conference after the meeting, pointing out that it is “too soon” to consider rates reductions in the midst of persistent inflationary pressures, especially those linked to the increase in tariffs.
• The 10 -year American treasure yield remains about 4.36% on Thursday, while 30 -year yield is around 4.88%, both falling almost 30 basic points from the maximums after Wednesday’s Fed. The setback occurs despite the hard line posture of the Fed, reflecting a cooling in the expectations of feat cuts as the markets reassess the policy prospects.
• The president of the FED, Jerome Powell, confirmed that no decision has been made regarding a possible rate cut in September, reinforcing the “waiting and seeing” position of the Central Bank. His caution comments caused a strong revaluation in market expectations: the probability of a rate cut in September fell to 37.2%, from around 65% earlier of the week, according to data from the CME Fedwatch tool.
• According to a last report published by the World Gold Council (WGC) on July 31, the gold demand (including OTC investment) increased 3% year -on -year to 1,249 tons. In terms of value, the total demand for gold jumped 45% year -on -year to 132,000 million dollars, driven by refuge flows to gold ETF and physical investment. This marked the first stronger half for gold investment since 2020.
• The ETF backed by gold saw 170 tons of net inputs in the second quarter, adding to 227 tons in the first quarter, making the first half of 2025 the period of six months stronger since the historic first half of 2020. The robust flows came from all the main regions, especially from China and North America, since the uncertainty on the commercial policy of the US Geopolitics kept the institutional demand high, added the WGC report.
• The central banks added 166 tons of gold to their reserves in the second quarter, 33% less than in the first quarter, but even 41% above the average of 2010-2021. Despite the deceleration, the World Gold Council points out that 95% of the central banks surveyed expect global reserves to increase in next year, reinforcing the role of gold as a strategic reserve asset.

Technical analysis: Xau/USD is consolidated between the range of $ 3,250 -3,450 $ as the impulse weakens

In the daily chart, the Xau/USD is being negotiated in a lateral range after reaching a historical maximum of 3,500.14 $ April 22. Since then, prices have been consolidating between $ 3,250 and $ 3,450, without showing a strong directional trend.

The level of $ 3,250 is still the first key support, which has previously acted as a strong demand zone. A rupture below this could expose the following support around $ 3,150. On the positive side, the immediate resistance is observed about $ 3,350, which aligns with the Bollinger middle band and also serves as the simple mobile average (SMA) of 20 days.

The relative force index (RSI) is currently in 44, reflecting a neutral impulse to slightly bassist, with more space to fall before entering over -sales territory. Meanwhile, the average directional index (ADX) is extremely low in 11.28, which suggests a weak tendency and a general indecision of the market.

This implies that gold can continue to negotiate within a range in the short term, unless there is a decisive breakdown above $ 3,350 or a break below $ 3,250.