Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD breaks above $1,920 after US data.

  • USD weakens after the release of the 4th quarter Employment Cost Index.
  • The data point to a slowdown in inflation.
  • XAU/USD erases daily losses with a bounce of more than $10.

gold prices rebounded strongly after the release of US labor cost data for the fourth quarter. Signs of a slowdown in inflation sent yields lower in the US and higher on Wall Street, weakening the dollar.

The Employment Cost Index (ICE) rose 1% in the fourth quarter, below the 1.1% market consensus, marking the third consecutive slowdown. Still, the index is up 4% compared to a year ago. Evidence of an improving inflation outlook boosted US yields ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision.

Still, the numbers are on the high side, suggesting that inflation is still not in line with the Fed’s target. “Even as supply chain pressures ease, commodity prices cool, and housing costs moderate, we think the FOMC still wants to see a bit more of a slowdown in wage growth before the Committee is confident that inflation is heading firmly to 2% over the medium term,” Wells Fargo analysts said.

The dollar fell after reporting and so did Treasuries, boosting gold. Stocks also rose and the price of crude increased. XAU/USD erased all losses and is hovering around daily highs at $1,927.

On Tuesday, gold bottomed at $1,900, critical support. Now prices are once again above the $1,920 area, another relevant technical area. If it holds above, it is expected to test $1,935.

technical levels

XAU/USD

Overview
Last price today 1920.95
Today Change Daily -1.19
today’s daily variation -0.06
today’s daily opening 1922.14
Trends
daily SMA20 1901.06
daily SMA50 1832.91
daily SMA100 1757.26
daily SMA200 1775.6
levels
previous daily high 1934.54
previous daily low 1920.67
Previous Weekly High 1949.27
previous weekly low 1911.45
Previous Monthly High 1833.38
Previous monthly minimum 1765.89
Fibonacci daily 38.2 1925.97
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 1929.24
Daily Pivot Point S1 1917.03
Daily Pivot Point S2 1911.91
Daily Pivot Point S3 1903.16
Daily Pivot Point R1 1930.9
Daily Pivot Point R2 1939.65
Daily Pivot Point R3 1944.77

Source: Fx Street

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