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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD plunges to new cycle low on rising US yields and risk aversion

  • The price of Gold plummets more than 1%, marking a new cycle low below $1,884.89.
  • Rising US bond yields and the looming threat of a US government shutdown added to the already deteriorating mood, sending Gold prices tumbling.
  • Minnesota Fed President Neil Kashkari remains hawkish and opens the door to more than one hike.

Gold price plunged more than 1% midway through the New York session, setting a new cycle low below the Aug. 21 swing low of $1,884.89, as sellers set their sights on higher levels. March 2023 lows, around $1,800. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair is trading at $1,875 after reaching a daily high of $1,903.98.

XAU/USD under immense pressure as US Treasury yields soar

Risk aversion and rising US bond yields keep XAU/USD under pressure. US Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 10-year yields last seen at 4.63%, gaining 1.90%, while fears of the US Federal Government shutdown, that could furlough millions of federal employees next Saturday, added another reason to the already sour sentiment.

Meanwhile, Minnesota Fed President Neil Kashkari continued his parade on Wednesday, noting that he’s not sure the Federal Reserve is tight enough and suggesting another rate hike is necessary. He added that he expects the US central bank to keep rates “stable” while leaving the door open to more than one hike, Kashkari said recently in an interview with Fox Business.

Previously, the US economic agenda revealed that US durable goods orders for August rose more than expected, by 0.2% mom, with estimates for a -0.2% drop; Excluding transportation, the so-called underlying, reached 0.4% month-on-month, above estimates and 0.1% expansion the previous month.

XAU/USD traders will follow US economic releases. The final revision of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), pending home sales, initial jobless claims and Fed data will be released on Thursday. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be announced on Friday , the underlying PCE.

XAU/USD Price Analysis: Technical Outlook

Gold’s daily chart shows the unperforming metal extending its losses towards the March 8 low of $1,809.48. If that level is broken, the yellow metal could test the lows around $1,804.78. Once this level is surpassed, the next support for XAU/USD would be the daily high of November 15, 2022, at $1,786.53. On the contrary, if XAU/USD recovers $1,884.89, the first resistance would be $1,900.

XAU/USD Price Action – Daily Chart


Latest price today 1874.81
Today Daily Change -26.19
Today’s daily variation -1.38
Today’s daily opening 1901
daily SMA20 1923.92
daily SMA50 1927.69
SMA100 daily 1939.88
SMA200 Journal 1926.76
Previous daily high 1916.87
Previous daily low 1899.25
Previous weekly high 1947.47
Previous weekly low 1913.95
Previous Monthly High 1966.08
Previous monthly low 1884.85
Daily Fibonacci 38.2 1905.98
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 1910.14
Daily Pivot Point S1 1894.54
Daily Pivot Point S2 1888.09
Daily Pivot Point S3 1876.92
Daily Pivot Point R1 1912.16
Daily Pivot Point R2 1923.33
Daily Pivot Point R3 1929.78

Source: Fx Street

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