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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stays above 20-day SMA, 200-day SMA, upside remains limited

  • XAU/USD rose to the $1,930 area, up 0.40% on the day.
  • Cautious markets awaiting central bank decisions this week.
  • US yields, which remain high, limit metals’ gains.

On Monday, the Gold XAU/USD remains above the convergence of the 20-day and 200-day SMA at $1,922-$1,923, rising to $1,930. Markets remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), where the British bank is expected to be the only one to raise rates.

Along these lines, like the European Central Bank (ECB) last week, the BoE is expected to make a moderate increase of 25 basis points, highlighting the risks of stagflation. Likewise, investors discount that the BOJ will maintain its ultra-dovish stance.

As for the Fed, it is expected to take a hawkish pause and try to convince markets that it is not the end of the tightening cycle. For the November and December meetings, investors are betting on a final rise, as economic activity remains strong, while the labor market presents mixed prospects. Additionally, the Fed will release updated charts and new macroeconomic forecasts.

Meanwhile, US yields, often considered the opportunity cost of holding Gold, are trading up and down but remain elevated, limiting XAU/USD’s upside. The 10-year bond yield stands at 4.33%, with slight losses on the day. The 2-year yield is at 5.06%, rising 0.50%, and the 5-year yield is at 4.45%, losing 0.30%.

XAU/USD Levels to watch

On the daily chart, the XAU/USD pair presents a neutral to bullish outlook, with the bulls showing resistance and gaining momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a bullish tilt with a positive slope above the threshold of 50, while the Moving Average Convergence Histogram (MACD) is showing ascending green bars. Furthermore, the pair is above the 20-day and 200-day SMA, implying that the bulls remain in control on a larger scale. Still, buyers should target the 100-day SMA at $1,946 to confirm the recovery.

Support levels: $1,923 – $1,920 (200 and 20-day SMA), $1,910, $1,900.

Resistance levels: $1,946 (100-day SMA), $1,970, $2,000.

XAU/USD Daily Chart


Latest price today 1931.95
Daily change today 7.95
Today’s daily variation 0.41
Today’s daily opening 1924
daily SMA20 1920.94
daily SMA50 1931.83
SMA100 daily 1946.91
SMA200 daily 1922.21
Previous daily high 1930.47
Previous daily low 1909.83
Previous weekly high 1930.77
Previous weekly low 1901.07
Previous Monthly High 1966.08
Previous monthly low 1884.85
Daily Fibonacci 38.2 1922.59
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 1917.71
Daily Pivot Point S1 1912.4
Daily Pivot Point S2 1900.79
Daily Pivot Point S3 1891.76
Daily Pivot Point R1 1933.04
Daily Pivot Point R2 1942.07
Daily Pivot Point R3 1953.68

Source: Fx Street

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