Gold Price forecast: XAU/USD threatens the key support of the $ 3,155 before the US data and Powell

• The price of gold is still vulnerable near the monthly minimums below $ 3,200 on Thursday.
• The US dollar interrupts the night rebound before the key data of the US and Powell’s speech.
• Will the price of gold defend the 50 -day SMA at $ 3,155 while the RSI remains bassist?

The price of gold seeks to extend the mass sale of more than 2% of the previous day early on Thursday. The yellow metal is still vulnerable near the monthly minimums, quoting below $ 3,200, while waiting for the US production price index (IPP) and high -impact retail sales data before the speech of the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell.

The price of gold at the mercy of US data and geopolitics

A negative change in the feeling of risk in Thursday’s Asian operations seems to be a new downward pressure on the US dollar (USD), helping the price of gold to pause its decline at this time.

The operators are becoming cautious and refrain from making directional bets on the dollar and the price of gold before the publication of the US IPP inflation and the retail sales data, which could significantly impact market expectations on future cuts of interest rates by the Fed.

Retail volumes could see a great impulse due to anticipation to anticipate the impact of US Tariffs, while US IPP inflation is scheduled to decrease to 2.5% during the year in April. The markets are valuing around 53 basic points (PB) of Fed feat cuts this year, with a 25 -PB reduction probability in September that is at approximately 50%, according to the Fed Watch tool of the CME Group.

The greatest probabilities of fewer features of the Fed continue to act as a wind against for the price of gold, which does not yield, despite the fact that the US consumer price index (CPI) cooled slightly in April. Annually, the US CPI increased 2.3% in the same period, compared to a provision of 2.4%.

The price of gold also supports the weight of the decrease in the fears of recession in the US, thanks to the commercial truce between the two largest economies in the world: USA and China. In addition, optimism about commercial conversations between the US and South Korea and the expectations of a nuclear agreement between the US and Iran keep at the price of gold, safe refuge, under pressure.

However, it remains to be seen if the price of gold will continue its decrease, since the feeling of risk could deteriorate even more if the next peace conversations between Ukraine and Russia result in a failure. IPP data and US retailer sales weakest than expected could rekindle moderate expectations of the Fed and provide so necessary support for the price of gold. Said that, Powell’s speech will probably also be highlighted.

In addition, the price of gold could receive support from the growing tensions on the US deficit after the treasure reported a budget deficit of 1,049 billion dollars in the first seven months of fiscal year 2025, which began on October 1, an increase of 23%, or 194 billion dollars, compared to the previous year.

Technical analysis of gold price: Daily graphics

Technically, the price of gold remains exposed to additional risks down while the price is maintained below the simple mobile average (SMA) of 21 days at $ 3,308.

Currently, the yellow metal is challenging the 50 -day SMA key at $ 3,155.

The 14 -day relative force index (RSI) is currently maintained below the midline, about 44, indicating greater downward potential.

However, if buyers manage to defend the 50 -day SMA at $ 3,155, a rebound cannot be ruled out for the 21 -day SMA at $ 3,308.

Above, the resistance of the downward trend line at $ 3,419 will come into play.

A sustained rupture below the 50 -day SMA support could trigger a new downward trend towards the 100 -day SMA in 2,972 $.

Before that, the round level of $ 3,100 and the minimum of April 10, $ 3,072.