Gold remains stable with the US NFP and commercial conversations between the US and China in the focus

• Gold rises as commercial conversations between the US and China relieve market fears, limiting the demand for safe refuge.
• Retail and GDP sales data of the eurozone exceeds forecasts, but the attention remains in the NFP Employment Report on Friday.
• Gold awaits a new catalyst for the next movement while psychological support is consolidated at $ 3,350.

The gold (Xau/USD) has fallen again into a narrow consolidation range on Friday, quoting around $ 3,363 at the time of writing and with investors remaining on high alert before the publication of the Non -Agricultural Payroll Report (NFP).

NFP data is expected to show that 130,000 jobs were created in the US labor market in May, below April 177,000 and that the unemployment rate is probably maintained without changes in 4.2%.

If the US labor market shows clear signs of weakness, the Federal Reserve (FED) could consider cutting interest rates in July, which could support the demand for gold since it has an inverse relationship with the fees.

Commercial and tariff developments continue to influence gold prices

Friday’s approach continues in the ongoing commercial discussions between the US and China, after the positive telephone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, where they agreed to restart high -level economic conversations. The agenda includes solving tariff disputes and improving relationships, but there is skepticism among investors about how much progress will be achieved. This, together with the uncertainty about tariffs between the US and Mexico, could maintain the feeling of the cautious market, supporting gold prices.

If commercial disputes intensify or fail to find a resolution, it could lead to economic slowdown, weaker variable income markets and a greater demand for refuge assets, such as gold.

Daily gold summary: commercial conversations, interest rates and economic perspectives

• The economic data published this morning from the Eurozone show that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeded the forecasts of analysts for the first quarter both in monthly and annual terms. GDP grew by 0.6% intertrmetral (QOQ), exceeding 0.4% estimates. Interannual figures (yoy) showed an increase of 1.5%, also above 1.2%estimates.
• Retail sales of the Eurozone increased a 2.3%year -on -year, above the 1.4%estimate, while the monthly reading was in line with the expectations of an increase of 0.1%.
• On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its interest rate in 25 basic points (PBS), a movement that was already discounted in the market. The president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, suggested that the rate relaxation cycle could be close to its short term.
• According to the CME Fedwatch tool, market participants expect the FED to maintain interest rates without changes within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50% at the June 18 meeting. However, the publication of the NFP could impact the prospects of whether the Fed will cut rates in July or September. The current probability of a 25 PBS rate cut in July is 33.9% at the time of writing, with a 75% probability that interest rates are lower than current levels in September.
• The ADP Employment Report, which was published on Wednesday, disappointed down, with the private sector by adding 37,000 jobs in May, below the expectations of analysts of an increase of 115,000.
• Thursday’s unemployment request data also provided signals of a slowdown in the strength of the employment situation in the US, with the initial applications by increasing to 247,000 last week, above the estimates of analysts of an increase of 235,000.

Gold threatens the support of the ascending channel

The gold is quoting within a narrow rank during the last four days, staying above the level of $ 3,350 since the Xau/USD recovered above it on Monday.

With an upward channel forming since the minimum of May 15, the price is currently near the lower limit of the pattern, providing imminent support at $ 3,360. Below that, the psychological level of $ 3,350 remains firm, a break from which a movement towards the simple mobile average (SMA) of 20 days at 3,297 $.

Meanwhile, given that the relative force index (RSI) remains above the neutral zone in the daily graph, a 56 reading suggests that the bullish impulse has not completely disappeared.

Daily Gold Graph

For upward movement, the price of gold has some technical obstacles to overcome. The resistance level of $ 3,392 has limited the bullish potential throughout the week, followed by the psychological level of $ 3,400. If the bulls exceed this area and the bullish impulse gains traction, a movement towards the April maximum of April in $ 3,500 could be possible.