- Gold remains around $ 3,350 while markets expect the US CPI; Inflation risks linked to tariffs are in focus.
- Fed interest rates perspectives depend on June CPI. General inflation is expected to be 2.7% (year -on -year) with an estimated underlying IPC in 3.0%.
- The Xau/USD technical breakout is coming from $ 3,371, with support about $ 3,337.
The gold (Xau/usd) remains firm, quoting slightly higher in the European session on Tuesday, with buyers entering before the key inflation data of the US inflation as concerns about tariffs resurface.
The precious metal recovers from Monday’s fall and is quoted above $ 3,350 at the time of writing. Attention now focuses on the publication of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June at 12:30 GMT, an important short -term catalyst for price action.
The markets are closely observing IPC data in search of signals that tariff cost pressures are being transferred to consumers.
Economists predict that the annual figure of the general CPI for June will increase 2.7%, from 2.4%. The underlying CPC is expected to exclude food and energy prices, it is printing by 3%, from 2.8%.
These figures are important because high inflation could force the Federal Reserve (FED) to delay interest rates, which would help increase the demand for US yields.
A stronger US dollar (USD) in response to increased yields could limit the short -term bullish potential for the Xau/USD. However, expectations persist that persistent inflation will increase the probability that the economy slows down at a faster rate. Since inflation reduces the purchasing power of a currency, gold is often seen as a coverage against such risks, which can help limit the downward movement.
Daily Gold Summary: Commercial tensions, tariff risks and price pressures boost the price of the XAU/USD
- According to CME’s Fedwatch tool, analysts expect the Fed to maintain stable interest rates within the 4.25% to 4.50% range in July. The probability of a rate cut in September is currently 59.3%, which can change in response to US inflation data.
- Additional catalysts for gold on Tuesday include developments in bilateral relations. As the tariff deadline of August 1 is approaching, the increase in encumbrances on US imports could further support the demand for safe refuge assets, including precious metals. In contrast, the decrease in commercial tensions and the improvement of the feeling of risk could weigh about the action of the Xau/USD.
- After the US president, Donald Trump, announced that tariffs on EU imports to the US will be established in 30% on Saturday, an official statement was published in the press corner of the European Commission on Sunday, which said: “We are ready to continue working towards an agreement for August 1. At the same time, we will take all necessary measures to safeguard EU, including the adoption of proportional countermeasures if necessary. ”
- On Friday, President Trump announced that Mexico will also face a 30% tax on imports to the US to the Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum, published in Truth Social, said: “Despite our strong relationship, he will remember that the United States imposed tariffs to Mexico to address the crisis of fentanil The cartels, which are composed of the most despicable people who have ever stepped on the land, to pour these drugs in our country, ”
- At a press conference on Monday, President Sheinbaum replied, stating that “if the United States government and their agencies would like to address the serious consumption of fentanyl in their country, they could combat the sale of narcotics in the streets of its main cities, what they do not do.”
- The wave of commercial threats, especially from the US, Mexico and the EU, adds a layer of political uncertainty that supports the demand for safe refuge in gold. Operators can continue to buy falls in the XAU/USD not only for weak economic data, but also by signals of deterioration in diplomacy, particularly if the rhetoric is intensified before the deadline of August 1.
Technical Gold Analysis: The XAU/USD remains above $ 3,350 with $ 3,400 in view
The gold is maintained above $ 3,350 at the time of writing, with the simple mobile average (SMA) of 20 days providing immediate support about $ 3,337. Below that level, the next supports to consider are the simple mobile average (SMA) of 50 days around $ 3,324 and the psychological level of $ 3,300.
The price action has come out of a contraction triangle formation, hinting at an upward perspective ahead, although confirmation is needed above $ 3,371, which is aligned with the fibonacci setback of 23.6% of the low-high range of April.
Daily Gold Graph (Xau/USD)
A clean movement through $ 3,400 could open the door towards the maximum of June of $ 3,452 and a possible re-provoking of the historical maximum of $ 3,500.
Meanwhile, the relative force index (RSI) is currently around 55, suggesting that the bullish impulse has space to advance without being overcompared.
Economic indicator
Consumer price index excluding food and energy (annual)
Inflation or deflationary trends are measured by periodically adding the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data such as the consumer price index (CPI). IPC data is collected monthly and are published by the Labor Statistics Office of the US the intermensual figure (MOM) compares the prices of the goods in the month of reference with the previous month. The IPC EX Food and Energy excludes the most volatile components of food and energy to give a more precise measurement of the pressures on prices. In general terms, a high reading is considered bullish for the US dollar (USD), while a low reading is considered bassist.
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Next publication:
Mar Jul 15, 2025 12:30
Frequency:
Monthly
Dear:
3%
Previous:
2.8%
Fountain:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The United States Federal Reserve has the double mandate to maintain price stability and maximize employment. According to this mandate, inflation should be around 2% year -on -year and has become the weakest pillar of the Central Bank directive since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to the present. The pressure on prices continues to increase due to problems and bottlenecks in the supply chain, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at maximum of several decades. The Fed has already taken measures to control inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive position in the predictable future.
GOLD – FREQUENT QUESTIONS
Gold has played a fundamental role in the history of mankind, since it has been widely used as a deposit of value and a half of exchange. At present, apart from its brightness and use for jewelry, precious metal is considered an active refuge, which means that it is considered a good investment in turbulent times. Gold is also considered a coverage against inflation and depreciation of currencies, since it does not depend on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the greatest gold holders. In their objective of supporting their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy gold to improve the perception of strength of the economy and currency. High gold reserves can be a source of trust for the solvency of a country. Central banks added 1,136 tons of gold worth 70,000 million to their reservations in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. It is the largest annual purchase since there are records. The central banks of emerging economies such as China, India and Türkiye are rapidly increasing their gold reserves.
Gold has a reverse correlation with the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, which are the main reserve and shelter assets. When the dollar depreciates, the price of gold tends to rise, which allows investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rebound in the stock market tends to weaken the price of gold, while mass sales in higher risk markets tend to favor precious metal.
The price of gold can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fear of a deep recession can cause the price of gold to rise rapidly due to its condition of active refuge. As an asset without yield, the price of gold tends to rise when interest rates lower, while the money increases to the yellow metal. Even so, most movements depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, since the asset is quoted in dollars (Xau/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep the price of gold controlled, while a weakest dollar probably thrusts gold prices.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
