Goldman Sachs revised upwards its forecast of the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2022. According to a report released this Friday (13), the expectation is now for a rise of 1.5%; previously, the US bank had expected growth close to zero, at 0.6%.
The optimism was supported by the set of economic indicators related to the first quarter, despite the escalation of inflation and the fall in purchasing power.
According to the report, the service sector, severely affected by the pandemic’s restrictive measures, was the one that most boosted the upward revision.
According to a survey by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released earlier this month, April had the strongest growth for the sector since 2007, with a reading of 60.6, compared to 58.1 in March. Results above 50 indicate expansion of activity.
The Goldman Sachs report also highlights that the improvement in the forecast was also driven by a strengthening of the labor market. The month of March, for example, was the first month to surpass pre-pandemic occupancy levels, according to a study by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea), a body linked to the structure of the Ministry of Economy.
The short duration of the wave of the Ômicron variant and incentives, such as tax reductions and social programs, such as Auxílio-Brasil and Auxílio-Gás, also helped to raise expectations.
Even so, the US bank warns that the second semester will be “difficult”, with impacts that will also be felt by the 2023 GDP.
The warning sounds because of tighter financial conditions for Brazilian families, double-digit inflation, record debt levels and, above all, noise and uncertainty generated by the polarized presidential election in mid-October.
“We expect the economy to expand in the first half, but face intense headwinds in the second half, which will be felt in 2023,” he said in a report.
Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs revised downward next year’s GDP to 0.9%, previously expected at 1.2%.
* Under supervision of Ana Carolina Nunes
Source: CNN Brasil
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