The games that complete the 37th and penultimate round of the Brasileirão, this Monday (6), can seal the fate of Grêmio and demote the team from Rio Grande do Sul to Serie B for the third time in its history.
According to the probability estimated by a group of professors from the Department of Mathematics at UFMG, the chances of Grêmio repeating the falls in 1991 and 2004 are, at this moment, 97.5%.
See how the Brazilian Championship table turned out after Sunday’s 37th round games
After tying with Corinthians this Sunday (5), the tricolor from Rio Grande do Sul is in 18th place in the table with 40 points, behind Bahia, Juventude and Cuiabá – which add up to 43 points each.
Juventude and Cuiabá have games, this Monday (6), in direct dispute to escape the last vacancies of bereavement. Juventude face São Paulo, in Morumbi, at 7 pm. Cuiabá, on the other hand, plays at home, at Arena Pantanal, against Fortaleza, at 20:00.
If Juventude and Cuiabá tie or win, they will surpass the mark of 43 points and mathematically relegate Grêmio to a round before the end of the Brasileirão, which ends next Thursday (9).
the miracle scenario
To extract salvation from relegation, Grêmio depends on a series of results.
In addition to rooting for Juventude and Cuiabá to lose this Monday (6), the Grêmio fans must beat the champion Atlético-MG in the 38th round at home – a match that takes place at 9:30 pm on Thursday (9).
Finally, Grêmio would also need to dry their opponents on Thursday night. It would take at least two defeats between the games between Bahia, who face Fortaleza at Castelão, Juventude, who play against Corinthians at Alfredo Jaconi, and Cuiabá, who face Santos at Vila Belmiro.
According to the mathematicians at UFMG, at this moment, Bahia has a 55.5% chance of falling to Série B, Cuiabá has 23.4% and Juventude 20.4%.
The only clubs that are already confirmed in the 2022 second division are Sport and Chapecoense.
Reference: CNN Brasil
