Half of the consumer loans concern car purchases.

Of Leonida Stergiou

In consumer credit, the new disbursements in 2021 reached 889 million euros, ie they exceeded those of mortgages by 5 million euros. The forecast for 2022 exceeds 1-1.2 billion euros, as the main source of demand comes from the car market (almost 50% of disbursements) and loans to meet personal needs. The latter were significantly strengthened with the appearance of the so-called fast loans through mobile phones for amounts up to 3,000 euros.

The consumer loan market moved at an annual rate of 30% in 2021, driven mainly by the car market, something that continues to be recorded in the first months of 2022, despite shortages, delays in deliveries, ie problems in production and supply chains. aggravated by war. Added to this is inflation and the energy crisis, which, according to car market executives, have reduced traffic on both the streets and in dealerships.

On the other hand, there is a growing interest in e-mobility, where many packages have been created co-financed, but also standardized through banks, in collaboration with delegations. These are loans up to 30,000 euros and up to 120 installments, with an interest rate of around 8.8%.

Car sales rose in February

According to official data (SEAA) for passenger vehicle registrations, there was an increase of 27% in February, however, in the two months January-February there was an annual decrease of 3.7% (due to a large drop in January). In terms of market shares, those with gasoline still prevail, but in February there was an increase of market share by 7% in hybrids and 2.4% in rechargeable (+ 5.6% and + 2%, in the two months, respectively ). Their total market share currently stands at 36.3% (compared to 44% of petrol vehicles). It is noteworthy that even in January, when there was an overall decrease in sales of more than 28% (annual change), new hybrid classifications increased by 3.6% and 1.5%, respectively (a decrease in all other categories except LPG which moved upwards in February as well).

However, bank executives expect the uncertainty and the problem of shortages and price increases in demand and disbursements of consumer loans for cars to be captured. On the other hand, the available data do not show the total retail banking decline at the moment. Indicatively, only in the first two months, 20% of the total loans of the banks were related to the retail banking. They also estimate that the same rates will be maintained on an annual basis, as one category of consumer credit may be reduced, while another may be strengthened mainly due to higher inflation needs.

Demand

Regarding the car market, according to data and estimates of banks, the average amount approved is between 10,000-15,000 euros, with the prevailing demand being at 11,000 euros. The interest comes from individuals -mainly men, over 40 years old with family- but also from companies operating in the wider tourism industry. Although uncertainty prevails in tourism due to war and precision, the industry remains moderately optimistic, while banks estimate that some Russian tourists will be lost this year, but will be offset by other countries, which traditionally contribute more to tourism revenue and consumption.

Impacts from tourism

In any case, both the impact on tourism, the economy, in certain sectors, such as manufacturing, trade, transport and the agricultural sector, and consequently on banks and loans, depend on the duration and intensity of geopolitical developments. and side effects. Top bank executives in contact with analysts said that Greek banks have created impact scenarios, but it is too early to draw reliable criteria.

Exposure to war

Moreover, according to data from the European Banking Authority (EBA) published on Friday afternoon and presenting the direct exposure of the banking system of each country in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus (through loans, deposits, cross-border transactions, etc.), the report on greek banks appears zero. This confirms the recent statements of bankers to similar questions of analysts during the presentation of the results of 2021, adding that any impact on banks will come indirectly through the macroeconomic environment.