The incessant lava gushing from Hawaii’s Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes has stirred memories of the devastating Kilauea eruption in 2018, which devoured hundreds of homes.
But eruptions now are different. While it’s not known how far lava from volcanoes will travel, experts say history and context can provide some clues.
Why Mauna Loa lava is harder to predict
Mauna Loa is the largest active volcano in the world. It extends for 16 km from the base to the summit and occupies half of the entire surface area of the Big Island of Hawaii, or Big Islandaccording to the US Geological Survey (USGS) agency.
But compared to its smaller neighbor, Kilauea, Mauna Loa doesn’t erupt as often. Thus, there is not much historical data about its lava and its path, he commented. Tracy Greggassociate professor of geology at the University at Buffalo.
This makes the lava’s trajectory – which can change at any time – more difficult to predict.
“The good news about lava is that, especially on the Big Island (Hawaii Island), it doesn’t surprise people. People know when it’s going to happen,” Gregg said.
“So in terms of loss of life, I’m not worried.”
Lava from Mauna Loa was advancing Tuesday at about 20 meters per hour, according to Mike Zoeller of the USGS’s Hawaii Volcano Observatory.
The lava flow, which has recently slowed down after reaching flatter surfaces, was about 3km off the Daniel K. Inouye Highway – the main highway connecting the east and west sides of the Big Island, he said.
But “everything could change in just an hour,” Gregg pointed out, making it much more difficult to identify which infrastructure or buildings could be damaged by lava.
Lava from Mauna Loa is unlikely to destroy homes, as the nearest population center is Hilo, about 70 km to the northeast.
Tracing the lava flow
See where lava flowed from Mauna Loa’s eruption on November 27
“In some cases, lava from Mauna Loa has reached Hilo and South Kona, so there certainly could be community exposure,” he said. Einat Levresearch associate professor of seismology, geology, and tectonophysics at Columbia University.
“However, this is very unlikely, judging by the historical extent of lava flows,” said Lev.
In fact, “the Mauna Loa lava flows did not flood the communities,” commented Gregg.
“There were some scares. Hilo is one of the largest cities on the island, and in the 1880s, the lava flow from Mauna Loa came very close to Hilo, but not quite as far.”
Right now, there’s a “small chance that the flow will take a detour and turn westward,” Lev said, where it “may interact with roads and structures in the Pōhakuloa Wildlife Management Area.”
The US Army Pohakuloa Training Area is about 30 km north of Mauna Loa. An unexploded bomb was spotted this week in lava rocks near a Mauna Loa eruption viewing area, the news channel reported. Hawaii News Now🇧🇷
“Unexploded ordnance can actually be found in the area, given its long history as a training area,” Lev said.
But there are too many variables — such as how deep the military device is in the ground — to speculate on what might happen if a lava flow hits it, Gregg added.
Why the Kilauea Eruption Might Not Be as Devastating
Just 3 km away from Mauna Loa, Kilauea has had explosions over the past year.
However, unlike the great eruption of 2018, which caused the destruction of hundreds of homes in the Leilani Estates neighborhood, Kilauea’s current eruption is very different, thanks to the origin of the lava and the distance from the people.
“Lava from the 2021 eruption was confined to its summit crater,” explained Lev.
In other words, the lava is now not gushing down the side of Kilauea, but getting closer to its top.
“This contrasts with the 2018 eruption, when the chimneys were located on the southeast flank of the volcano,” continued Lev.
“There is always the chance there could be another eruption on the flank, closer to communities, but not from the current location of the Kilauea eruption.”
Gregg expects Kilauea’s eruption to stay as it is, with the lava spurting upward and remaining within its summit crater, he said.
“If you think of the crater as a bathtub, it has barely started to fill in,” explained Gregg.
“Right now, Kilauea lava is behaving very well. We hope it stays that way.”
Why Lava Doesn’t Follow Orders
In the past, humans have tried deflect or even prevent the lava to move forward. Workers used bulldozers to build massive earth walls to try to redirect lava after eruptions, such as Mount Etna in Sicily.
But “the story didn’t succeed,” said Paul Segall, a professor of geophysics at Stanford University.
In 1935, the founder of the Hawaii Volcano Observatory asked the then-US Army Air Corps to bomb Mauna Loa’s lava source as it headed toward the Wailuku River, according to the US Geological Survey.
The army dropped two bombs weighing almost 300 kg, but they missed their target, and the effect on the lava flows was minimal.
Lava’s tendency to flow “is extremely sensitive to temperature,” Segall said. This makes her “a little unpredictable”.
Still, with neighboring volcanoes now erupting simultaneously, scientists want to study what happens next.
“It would be fascinating to see if the eruptions influence each other,” said Lev.
But, according to Gregg, no matter what happens: Residents and tourists alike should heed local authority warnings and follow advice from volcanologists.
“I think the most important thing is to understand that we really can’t predict what’s going to happen, not from hour to hour, not even from one day to the next.”
*Zoe Sottile da CNN contributed to this report.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
