The growth in demand for diesel in the world, during the second half of this year, is already starting to put pressure on the fuel, causing, according to specialists, a “detachment” in the variation in the value of this derivative from a barrel of oil.
Data from the investing.com platform collected by CNN show that in August, for example, Brent oil dropped by 13% per barrel, while diesel oil showed an average increase of 4% in the same period.
Data from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) show that in Brazil, in the last five years, diesel imports were higher in the second half than in the first.
In the first six months of 2021, the country imposed 6,400.3 m³ of fuel, while in the last six months of the same year, this volume was 7,999.5 m³. This represents an increase of 24.9% in the amount of this fuel that entered the country.
According to Adriano Pires, director of the Brazilian Center for Infrastructure (CBIE), the increase in diesel consumption in the second half of the year is due to the harvest and export season of agricultural crops, generating a movement of seasonality in consumption between the first half of the year and the second half of the year. and the second semester.
Meanwhile, Russia has indefinitely interrupted the supply of natural gas to the European continent through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. According to Pires, this will put pressure on world demand for the fuel, as diesel oil is an immediate substitute for natural gas. as a fuel for industry and electricity in Europe.
“I don’t believe there is a risk of running out of diesel, but there should be an increase in the price. You have a purchase of diesel to stock up, to prevent possible tougher sanctions from Russia on Europe. When you increase the demand, but you don’t increase the offer, over the price”, says Adriano Pires.
Pires explains that because of this “detachment”, it is even possible to observe, for the first time, in Brazil and in most countries, that diesel is more expensive than gasoline, due to the high demand for diesel oil.
The professor and energy specialist at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), David Zylberstajn, stated that an increase in international demand will certainly cause an increase in the price of diesel, and this will be reflected in the country.
However, Zylberstajn highlights the importance of Petrobras matching domestic prices to the international market. Mauro Rochlin, economist at FGV, reiterated the importance of Petrobras maintaining a price policy, as this will not affect market supply.
“The problem could happen if Petrobras started to practice prices below the international market, with that importers will withdraw, and the company will have to assume this”, he highlighted.
According to the ANP, during the second half of 2021, Brazil’s external dependence on diesel was 28.3% of internal fuel consumption. That is, of the entire volume of fuel consumed in the country in the period, 71.7% were refined internally.
Source: CNN Brasil