High in retail is more anchored in supermarkets, says IBGE

The less favorable performance of sales in the Black Friday promotions campaign and the still high inflation in the country prevented a more favorable result in retail sales in November, said Cristiano Santos, manager of the Monthly Trade Survey (PMC) at the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

The volume sold rose 0.6% in November compared to October, but only three of the eight activities surveyed registered progress.

“If we look at this margin data (series with seasonal adjustment), it is a data being anchored by a very strong activity, which is supermarkets”, pointed out Cristiano Santos, saying that supermarkets joined Black Friday promotions and benefited from also a rise in credit.

“In fact, five of the activities surveyed had a negative change in volume”, he stressed.

The decreases were registered in furniture and household appliances (-2.3%), fabrics, apparel and footwear (-1.9%), fuels and lubricants (-1.4%), books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-1 .4%) and equipment and supplies for office, IT and communication (-0.1%).

In the opposite direction, there were advances in hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (0.9%), pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic, perfumery and cosmetic articles (1.2%) and other articles for personal and domestic use ( 2.2%).

“Activities that have a strong Black Friday showed a drop in volume”, noted Santos, pointing to the furniture and home appliances and fabrics, clothing and footwear segments as an example.

In the expanded retail trade, which includes the activities of vehicles and construction material, there was an increase of 0.5% in November compared to October. The segment of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces registered a high of 0.7%, while construction material rose 0.8%.

The previous month’s retail result, October compared to September, was revised from a decline of 0.1% to an increase of 0.2%. In broad retail, the rate for October compared to September was revised from a decline of 0.9% to a drop of 0.8%.

“Revisions are even more adjustment. New information came in, but it was more adjustment (of the statistical model that neutralizes seasonal impacts)”, explained Santos.

Compared to November 2020, retail trade had a decline of 4.2% in November 2021, the sharpest for the month since 2015, when it shrank 7.8%. Seven of the eight activities recorded losses.

In extended retail, sales fell 2.9%. The vehicle segment grew 1.7%, but construction material fell 4.1%.

Santos recalls that the comparison base for November 2020 was very high, which also contributes to lower sales this year.

“There is also an inflationary component affecting some activities quite a bit,” added the researcher.

The weakest Black Friday in 2021 contributed -0.8 percentage point to the 4.2% drop in retail sales compared to November 2020. In extended retail, this negative contribution was 0.7 percentage point for the decrease of 2.9% in volume sold, calculated the IBGE.

The improvement in retail performance from October to November caused the sales volume to be 1.2% above the level of February 2020, in the pre-pandemic period. In expanded retail, which includes vehicle and construction material activities, sales operate 1.9% below the pre-pandemic level.

However, only the segments of pharmaceutical articles, construction material, other articles of personal and domestic use and supermarkets are operating above the pre-sanitary crisis level.

The pharmaceutical articles segment operates at a level 13.2% above the pre-sanitary crisis; construction material, up 12.6%; other articles for personal and domestic use, up 11.1%; and supermarkets, 1.7% up.

Vehicles are 5.9% below their February 2020 level; furniture and appliances, down 14.8%; apparel, down 7.5%; fuels, down 12.5%; IT and communication equipment, down 12.8%; and books and stationery, down 37.7%.

“There continues to be this heterogeneity in terms of growth in retail activities and also in expanded retail”, acknowledged Santos. “It’s quite uneven really still, and I’m not sure if it will be the same again in the future, or at least more homogeneous,” he concluded.