The Internal Revenue Service reported that it collected R$ 181.040 billion in taxes and contributions in June 2022, the best result of the entire historical series for the month, which began in 1995.
The positive result was driven by fuels, financial services, mineral extraction and oil and gas extraction – the activities with the largest revenue increases. However, experts draw attention to another category that has registered growth: the pension income .
Social security revenue collected BRL 44.516 billion in June this year, registering a real increase of 10.8% compared to the same period in 2021. In 2021, the federal administration raised BRL 40,177 billion in real values (without discounting inflation is BRL 35,909 billion).
“It is a substantial growth, given that we have a very large volume of revenues that are linked to social security”, highlighted Tiago Sbardelotto, economist at XP.
According to the Revenue, the growth in collection occurred due to the real increase of 4.01% in the salary mass, discounting inflation, in addition to the better performance of Simples Nacional collection in relation to June of last year.
Social security revenue is illustrated in the graph below in nominal values, without discounting inflation, which shows the growth of revenue over the years, since the beginning of the historical series.
“Photography is better than expected. The generation of employment and the strengthening of the labor market in the first half of the year has surprised analysts”, he said to the CNN Brasil Business Murilo Viana, economist and specialist in public accounts.
According to the economist, the improvement in the labor market in the first part of 2022 is one of the factors that led to a revision in the forecast of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) higher for the year.
The Ministry of Economy updated its forecast for GDP growth of 2%, compared to 1.5% in the previous projection. The estimate is more in line with the market, which is now forecasting economic growth of 1.75%, up from 1.59% last week and 1.5% a month ago.
“The impact of the war in Ukraine generates a positive effect for the Brazilian economy due to the rise in the price of commodities in general, which affects the sectors in collection. The oil sector generated quite significant revenues, in addition to foodstuffs”, explained Viana.
Despite better-than-expected results in the first half of 2022, the economist stressed that the outlook for the second half is less positive than in the first half of the year.
“The second semester signals very relevant challenges, not only for Brazil but for the whole world, with the slowdown in commodities, the escalation of interest rates and the risk of global recession”, he pondered.
Labor market
The process of labor market recovery has intensified in recent months, according to the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea).
According to data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD Contínua), the employed population in the country totaled 98.3 million people in May this year, advancing 9.5% compared to the same period last year.
After seasonal adjustment, the number of 99.9 million employed persons in May this year was 1.2% higher than that observed in April, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the series, in January 2012.
“When we look at the data, it is possible to observe a recovery in recent months, which is giving strength to the growth of pension revenue. This recovery occurs along with the increase in the wage bill in real terms”, declared Tiago Sbardelotto, economist at XP.
The specialist pointed out that the job market shows signs of improvement, but the worker still maintains a real income below inflation.
“Real income still has an accumulated drop of -6.8, that is, what workers have achieved in terms of a nominal increase is still below inflation,” he said.
“But it is a number that has been gradually improving, which means that workers are getting better wages in recent months,” he added.
The proportion of employed Brazilians in relation to the total population of working age reached 56.8% in May, accelerating 4.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2021. In seasonally adjusted terms, the result observed in May (57, 7%) is the highest recorded since March 2015 (57.8%).
“We have a strong recovery in the labor market in the part of the employed population. Comparing May with the same month last year, we have a growth of 6.5% in occupancy”, stated Sbardelotto.
Finally, Sbardelotto highlighted that the private sector has boosted the recent results recorded, contributing to the increase in pension revenue in June, disclosed last Thursday.
“In the private sector with a formal contract, which is important when thinking about pension revenue, as it is the main contributor, we had a growth of 12%. Much of this growth in pensions is due to the recovery of the private sector with a portfolio, as we have seen in recent months,” he concluded.
Source: CNN Brasil
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