THE coronavirus it did not only bring deaths. It also “blocked” births in several European countries, according to newer demographics.
In France, the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) presented preliminary data on births children in January 2021 – nine months after the first “lockdown” in the country – which show that 53,900 children were born, 13% less than in January 2020. The country, which has traditionally had one of the highest fertility rates in the European Union, has seen the largest drop in births since the 1970s.
Births in France, according to the Athens News Agency, had decreased by 7% in December 2020, compared to a year ago, with the result that last year’s total births (735,000) are the fewest since the end of the year. World War II.
«There are many fantasies that when, due to a pandemic, couples are more at home they will have more children. In fact, some find it very difficult to be together all the timeAn IN Solage of INED told the Financial Times.
Preliminary demographics also show birth declines in Spain and Italy, two countries with aging populations hardest hit by the coronavirus. But in Britain and the US there are similar declining trends.
The collapse of births in developed countries after a major economic crisis (eg after the “crash” of 1929 or after the oil crisis of 1973) or after a pandemic, as now, is not something that surprises demographers. Many prospective parents are more concerned about their job security, their general financial situation, and their ability to raise a young child properly.
«What is different this time is that the drop in births is really big. It is somewhat unprecedented, but the current crisis is also unprecedentedSaid INNO Director of Research Arno Rainier-Loulier. As he noted, during 2020 a climate of great anxiety and fear prevailed, as people were worried not only about their financial survival, but also about the risk of their children getting sick from the coronavirus.
Italy recorded 21.6% fewer births in December 2020 compared to December 2019. For the whole of 2020, according to the National Statistical Service (ISTAT), there were about 400,000 births, compared to 420,000 in 2019, while last year Italy had 647,000 deaths due to the pandemic, making the “gap” between deaths and births the largest since the “Spanish” flu in 1918.
ISTAT links the large decline in births to the collapse in the number of births wedding, which fell by more than 50% in the first ten months of 2020. And France recorded fewer marriages last year, 34% fewer than in 2019.
The Statistical Institute of Spain estimates that in December 2020 and January 2021 births “fell” around 20% compared to the corresponding months a year ago. The 23,266 births in December 2020 were the fewest in any month since 1941.
On the other hand, in some northern European countries births do not seem to have been affected as much or even increased. Sweden recorded a decrease of 6.4% in January this year, according to the country’s Statistical Office. However, Finland and the Netherlands – in the midst of a pandemic – reversed their long-term negative demographic trends, showing small increases in births in the first month of 2021. This is probably due to the fact that the Nordic and other northern European countries were not affected by the coronavirus as much. the European South.
The question – now – for demographers is whether the fall in births will last longer or prove to be very temporary. The Spanish demographer Teresa Castro estimated that throughout 2021 births will show a significant decrease, as, as she said, “I do not think this is a temporary phenomenon. Uncertainties are one of the main reasons why people do not have children. “And people continue to face significant uncertainties about their health and especially about their financial situation.”
Somewhat more optimistic, French demographer Rainier-Loulier stressed that “when crises pass, there is a tendency for fertility to return close to or above pre-crisis levels.”
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