‘Hot’ August in Greek-Turkish

By Kostas Raptis

A summer break in Greek-Turkish relations is not foreseen. Equally, the distant rhetorical duel between Erdogan and Mitsotakis in the past few days gives a measure of the prevailing geopolitical “heat”, while the imminent departure of the new Turkish research vessel “Abdullahamit Khan” creates risks even for the involvement of the two sides at close range. Always in the background of a wider “standoff”, with Ankara seeing in Greece a field for exerting pressure to reorganize its complicated relations with the USA.

Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias was clear: “Contrary to what we hoped for, during this time the list of our problems with Turkey increased, it did not decrease at all… The climate is more burdensome than ever. In all the historical periods when we had a crisis with Turkey there was a noticeable difference. That the crisis was limited in time and immediately afterwards we came back, at least on one level, to discuss. It is the first time that we have a long crisis of almost three years, with little room for dialogue,” said from Cyprus head of Greek diplomacy.

If something makes a big difference, however, this is the theorization, already last year, of revisionist expansionism in the Aegean, with the promotion of the new doctrine of the “interconnection” of Greek sovereignty over the islands with their demilitarization. And Tayyip Erdoğan does not miss the opportunity to restore this doctrine.

“Greece’s activities that are against good neighborliness are also against the Lausanne and Paris Treaties. When they violate the Lausanne and Paris Treaties, will we sit with our hands tied? We, when the time comes, will do what we must . Mitsotakis does not know that the sovereignty of these islands was granted on the condition that they be demilitarized. I think he will find out,” the Turkish leader said in an interview on Monday on the TRT network, effectively presenting the undertaking of aggressive moves against Greece as pre-decided.

Erdogan does not hide the immediate causes of his irritation. It is, as he stated in the same interview, the proliferation of American bases in our country as well as the obstacles arising on the other side of the Atlantic, with the help of Athens’ friends, regarding the purchase of F-16 fighters from the neighbor. After all, no matter what the White House wishes, the head of the foreign affairs committee of the US Senate, Bob Menendez, in his speech at the World Conference of Diaspora Cypriots emphasized that “based on the long list of Turkish illegalities, the US should not to change their position and give the F-16s to President Erdogan.”

Not coincidentally, this week the US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, had a telephone conversation with his Turkish counterpart, Hulusi Akar, during which the US F-16s and the Greek-Turkish ones were discussed.

The confrontation is not strictly Greek-Turkish, but “triangular”. Ankara’s strongman interprets what is happening as an American plan to encircle him and intends to pick up the gauntlet in a similar way.

“Let him focus on his economy”

The answer of the Greek Prime Minister came immediately, with an interview with CNN. “We are facing a huge geopolitical crisis with the invasion of Russia. The last thing Europe and NATO need is another hotbed of unrest. We have an obligation to resolve our differences with Turkey and the only way is international law. Greece always behaves responsibly. We have seen serious challenges in the past months, but I believe Mr. Erdogan will serve his fellow citizens better if he focuses on recovering his economy, rather than reviving neo-Ottoman fantasies. Greece will do whatever it takes to defend sovereignty and its sovereign rights” said Kyriakos Mitsotakis characteristically, combining the message to the international factor with the necessity of demarcating the Greek-Turkish crisis.

Cavusoglu is pleased

The Turkish foreign minister, again, appears optimistic. Perhaps because he feels that it is his own country that can appear as a guarantor of the unity and effectiveness of NATO.

In a televised interview, Mevlut Cavusoglu claimed that the US-Turkish negotiations on the F-16 are “going well” and that the “negative atmosphere” of recent years in Congress has dissipated. He said that a “strategic mechanism” has been created between the US and Turkey on issues of concern to bilateral relations (Kurds, possible extradition of Fethullah Gulen) and that the first ministerial-level meeting has already taken place in New York. “This cooperation is also of strategic importance to NATO. They are also aware of the role that the Republic of Turkey has recently assumed, and let’s hope that this awareness is not temporary,” he made sure to point out, alluding to his country’s pivotal mediating role in recent agreement on Ukrainian grain exports.

And if this “signal” is not enough, the meeting scheduled for August 5 between Erdogan and Vladimir Putin in Sochi, with the subject of energy cooperation, will demonstrate to all interested parties the room for maneuver that Ankara has conquered.

The sequel on the water

On August 9, however, all eyes will be on the Eastern Mediterranean, where the seventh-generation floating drilling rig with the iconic Ottoman name “Abdulhamit Khan” will make its debut, which can survey at depths of up to 12,200 meters.

The South Korean-built ship, 238 meters long and 42 meters wide, will set sail, according to the Turkish Energy Minister, Fatih Donmez, from the port of Mersina, but the course it follows will be of critical importance.

To follow the “trodden path” of investigations in the maritime jurisdiction of the Republic of Cyprus will signal the maintenance of tension at controlled levels. However, any movement of it further west, near Rhodes, Karpathos or even Crete, will be a provocative move to secure the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, which cannot leave the Greek forces indifferent – and the relevant plans are already being drawn up.

Through NOTAM A1781/22, Greece has reserved five areas for Navy and Air Force exercises, from June 21 to September 7, a period that also includes the start of service of “Abdulhamit Khan”.

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